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Winter 2013-14 (Early speculations)


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#1 tennessee storm chaser

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Posted 06 July 2013 - 12:24 AM

Boys and girls.....its never too early to start thinking about this winter! Ive seen topics started about it on other weather forums, so lets get started. So far, models are showing neutral enso conditions through the end of the year. I will admit that the QBO concerns me since its going through another phase that allows it to turn more positive. Its been negative for a while now. Some of the more  knowledgeable wx experts can chime in on this topic if they feel the need to. A -qbo promotes more blocking in the stratosphere, and the +qbo restricts blocking....which keeps the cold air way up north.  I think winter starts early but ends quite abruptly. Last winter was the opposite to the extent of the coldest wx was in feb and march with a record low -nao,esp in march.

#2 andyhb

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Posted 06 July 2013 - 03:39 AM

View Posttennessee storm chaser, on 06 July 2013 - 12:24 AM, said:

Boys and girls.....its never too early to start thinking about this winter! Ive seen topics started about it on other weather forums, so lets get started. So far, models are showing neutral enso conditions through the end of the year. I will admit that the QBO concerns me since its going through another phase that allows it to turn more positive. Its been negative for a while now. Some of the more  knowledgeable wx experts can chime in on this topic if they feel the need to. A -qbo promotes more blocking in the stratosphere, and the +qbo restricts blocking....which keeps the cold air way up north.  I think winter starts early but ends quite abruptly. Last winter was the opposite to the extent of the coldest wx was in feb and march with a record low -nao,esp in march.

They started their threads far too early.
Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image
April 27th, 2011: PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION /PDS/ TORNADO WATCHES 232/235 CONTINUE UNTIL 00Z/03Z RESPECTIVELY. THIS INCLUDES THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG-TRACK STRONG/PERHAPS VIOLENT TORNADOES INTO THIS EVENING AS A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ONLY INCREASES IN MAGNITUDE/RISK. AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS/LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION CONTINUES TO UNFOLD THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS A LARGE PART OF MS/AL.

#3 SD

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Posted 06 July 2013 - 04:51 PM

I'd lean warm but my long range forecasts have struggled lately
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#4 tennessee storm chaser

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Posted 06 July 2013 - 11:18 PM

SD, i know its early, but do u agree winter starts strong and ends rather quickly with the qbo turning more positive now and will prolly last for rest of yr? Also, ive heard that if u have a +qbo, u normally want to see high solar activity, sunspots, etc, and the opposite can be said for -qbo. I know....it always comes down to the nao and pdo as we get closer to winter.

#5 SUB900

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Posted 07 July 2013 - 10:39 AM

Some of the snowiest winters on record in the eastern US were during a +QBO
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#6 Thunder91

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Posted 07 July 2013 - 11:00 AM

All I know is that we are definitely due for accumulating snow next winter. In my entire life living here I have never gone three straight winters without accumulating snow and I haven't had accumulating snow since February 2011 !

#7 Stormlover

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Posted 07 July 2013 - 10:02 PM

Way too early to even think about it. And that will still be the case when football kicks off :pals:

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"To all the weather nuts out there I say go for it. The more ideas,the more people see the better it is. Diversity of info is a good thing.."In the weather and in everything let Freedom ring.When there is competition and Freedom the best answer will come to the top"..."There is no authority in the weather.Models can hit they can miss but its the wonderment of it all that is what this is all about"
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#8 Tyler Penland

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Posted 07 July 2013 - 10:31 PM

Its July and we're talking about winter? lol

If the current pattern can (which it most likely can't) maintain itself we'll be digging out for months.
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#9 Cyclogent

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Posted 08 July 2013 - 12:07 PM

My early thoughts....YTD precip patterns aren't very encouraging for snow lovers.  Above average precip in the Southeast generally correlates with below normal snowfall for the following winter.  There are some exceptions to that...unfortunately those exceptions tend to be in El Nino winters, which right now, looks very unlikely.
Winter 2013-14
11/27/13 - light dusting of snow grains
01/02/14 - 1/8" of snow
01/06/14 - 1/10" of sleet/snow
01/28/14 - 2 1/8" of snow
02/08/14 - dusting of snow
02/11/14 - dusting of snow
2/12/14-2/13/14 - 8.5" of snow
03/25/14 - dusting of snow

Season Total - 10.9"

Coldest temp, 1.8F/-16.8C

#10 tennessee storm chaser

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Posted 09 July 2013 - 12:26 AM

I know its crazy to even think about winter now, but its good in a way to have an idea what may or may not happen so we wont be disappointed if winter isnt cold and snowy or if it is! Thats why people dont even worry about it until sept or oct, but its fun to make guesstimations i suppose. I want to see a cold winter just like most of us on here, but it usually depends on the nao/ao, but there are factors that influence it being negative or positive during winter. The qbo has alot to do with those teleconnections being - or +. The qbo being in the - phase, helps breakdown the polar vortex enough to turn the ao and nao -. From my understanding, when we have a + qbo, it inhibits the polar vortex to break down or split up into smaller vortices which leads to colder air spilling down into the US. To sum things up in a nutshell, its quite difficult to have cold weather here in a +qbo regime, like i think we will see this winter.

#11 Stormlover

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Posted 09 July 2013 - 10:50 AM

View Posttennessee storm chaser, on 09 July 2013 - 12:26 AM, said:

I know its crazy to even think about winter now, but its good in a way to have an idea what may or may not happen so we wont be disappointed if winter isnt cold and snowy or if it is! Thats why people dont even worry about it until sept or oct, but its fun to make guesstimations i suppose. I want to see a cold winter just like most of us on here, but it usually depends on the nao/ao, but there are factors that influence it being negative or positive during winter. The qbo has alot to do with those teleconnections being - or +. The qbo being in the - phase, helps breakdown the polar vortex enough to turn the ao and nao -. From my understanding, when we have a + qbo, it inhibits the polar vortex to break down or split up into smaller vortices which leads to colder air spilling down into the US. To sum things up in a nutshell, its quite difficult to have cold weather here in a +qbo regime, like i think we will see this winter.
Yeah, this topic coming out in July will keep us from being disappointed if winter doesn't have snow? :shrug:

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"To all the weather nuts out there I say go for it. The more ideas,the more people see the better it is. Diversity of info is a good thing.."In the weather and in everything let Freedom ring.When there is competition and Freedom the best answer will come to the top"..."There is no authority in the weather.Models can hit they can miss but its the wonderment of it all that is what this is all about"
-Joe Bastardi-Weatherbell Analytics

#12 storm5

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Posted 09 July 2013 - 11:07 AM

View PostStormlover, on 09 July 2013 - 10:50 AM, said:

Yeah, this topic coming out in July will keep us from being disappointed if winter doesn't have snow? :shrug:/>

Plus 20

#13 tennessee storm chaser

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Posted 09 July 2013 - 11:17 PM

Stormlover, what i mean is that early indications from what ive been hearing dont look that promising this winter. I didnt want people to be shocked or suprised if this winter isnt that cold, esp with qbo turning positive as we speak. The QBO isnt the only teleconnection out there, but its more important than people think it is. We will be neutral, if that, this winter in the enso area. Good news for now....the PDO has turned positive for first time in 35 months

#14 Stormlover

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Posted 10 July 2013 - 10:30 AM

View Posttennessee storm chaser, on 09 July 2013 - 11:17 PM, said:

Stormlover, what i mean is that early indications from what ive been hearing dont look that promising this winter. I didnt want people to be shocked or suprised if this winter isnt that cold, esp with qbo turning positive as we speak. The QBO isnt the only teleconnection out there, but its more important than people think it is. We will be neutral, if that, this winter in the enso area. Good news for now....the PDO has turned positive for first time in 35 months
No one has a clue what it's going to be.

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"To all the weather nuts out there I say go for it. The more ideas,the more people see the better it is. Diversity of info is a good thing.."In the weather and in everything let Freedom ring.When there is competition and Freedom the best answer will come to the top"..."There is no authority in the weather.Models can hit they can miss but its the wonderment of it all that is what this is all about"
-Joe Bastardi-Weatherbell Analytics

#15 SUB900

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Posted 10 July 2013 - 06:46 PM

Trying to nail down the winter ENSO and QBO values in July is like trying to tell if it will be raining next month on the 15th..LOL
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#16 andyhb

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Posted 10 July 2013 - 07:01 PM

There's a better chance of 2 EF4 tornadoes hitting Jackson than being able to tell what the QBO/ENSO is going to be doing this far out.
Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image
April 27th, 2011: PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION /PDS/ TORNADO WATCHES 232/235 CONTINUE UNTIL 00Z/03Z RESPECTIVELY. THIS INCLUDES THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG-TRACK STRONG/PERHAPS VIOLENT TORNADOES INTO THIS EVENING AS A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ONLY INCREASES IN MAGNITUDE/RISK. AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS/LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION CONTINUES TO UNFOLD THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS A LARGE PART OF MS/AL.

#17 tennessee storm chaser

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Posted 10 July 2013 - 11:05 PM

Andy, i beg to differ on what u said about the tornadoes hitting a certain city. I know its an example, but its fun to talk about possibilities. Usually, its colder during the winter in a -qbo qhich helps break down the PV and turn the ao and nao negative or a higher likelihood of that happening. What suprises me is in the not so cold winter of 2011-12, we had a -qbo, but real warm....actually 4th warmest on record. In previous winter before that one, we had a +QBO, but extremely cold winter. So if anyone knows how we can have a +QBO  and it be cold like it was in 2010-11, please fill us in or at least me in.

#18 tennessee storm chaser

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Posted 10 July 2013 - 11:09 PM

Sub900, once patterns set up, its difficult to change them so quickly. We are on the outskirts of getting in the +QBO phases. I think i read somewhere where you was talking about how the QBO being positive can lead to the coldest snowiest winters where we are, but you could give us some more reasoning behind that reasoning

#19 SUB900

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Posted 11 July 2013 - 04:46 PM

View Posttennessee storm chaser, on 10 July 2013 - 11:09 PM, said:

Sub900, once patterns set up, its difficult to change them so quickly. We are on the outskirts of getting in the +QBO phases. I think i read somewhere where you was talking about how the QBO being positive can lead to the coldest snowiest winters where we are, but you could give us some more reasoning behind that reasoning
First thing I would point out is that ENSO and QBO indice values doesnt always translate to an expected weather pattern..so saying "once weather patterns set up its difficult to change them" doesnt make a whole lot of sense especially when referring to a QBO phase which can flip just after a few months of a particular phase. There is nothing gauaranteeing a +QBO phase this winter. Now..I will agree with you that a -QBO favors colder winters but thats just not always the case and it would be bad meteorology to say the winter is gonna be warm based on the phase of the QBO alone. As recent as the winter of 2010/11 which was a cold winter.. the QBO was positive all winter long!There are several different reasons that a cold winter can happen during a +QBO..the main one being stratospheric warming events still happen even in a +QBO regime and they cause the AO/NAO to favor the negative phase hence colder weather. Its just too early to speculate on any of this. Maybe we can start talking about this stuff with some confidence come October.
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#20 tennessee storm chaser

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Posted 12 July 2013 - 12:38 AM

Sub900, the qbo was positive all winter in 2010-11, but the main thing is the nao/AO were negative, which helped during a mod nina that winter. Early indications are the nao/ao may be positive because of the water pattern around greenland isnt aligned to favor a -nao/ao right now. Still early, but not looking promising. Pdo is important as well as also the mjo....more than people think they are!

#21 tennessee storm chaser

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Posted 13 July 2013 - 12:35 AM

I looked at american weather for a while friday night, and there is a guy (HM) that posts on occasion. He really knows his stuff for the most past. I know SD and sub900 has seen him post. He says with a +qbo, we want to see either a warm enso or a lanina. He said the worst case scenario for this winter would be if the enso remains neutral that it would mess with the waves of the qbo and rosby. Bad timing to sum it up in a nutshell. This is all preliminary, but its something to think about. He believes another backloaded winter may evolve, similar to last winter. However, the cfs v2 is showing very cold in dec and january, but thats the cfs.

#22 Stormlover

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Posted 13 July 2013 - 10:49 AM

Yep, cold for Dec-Feb.
Posted Image

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"To all the weather nuts out there I say go for it. The more ideas,the more people see the better it is. Diversity of info is a good thing.."In the weather and in everything let Freedom ring.When there is competition and Freedom the best answer will come to the top"..."There is no authority in the weather.Models can hit they can miss but its the wonderment of it all that is what this is all about"
-Joe Bastardi-Weatherbell Analytics

#23 Tyler Penland

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Posted 13 July 2013 - 08:20 PM

View PostStormlover, on 13 July 2013 - 10:49 AM, said:

Yep, cold for Dec-Feb.
Posted Image

Well that just about nails it down now doesn't it? :Grinch-icon:
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#24 tennessee storm chaser

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Posted 13 July 2013 - 11:47 PM

Stormlover, i like that cfs map. Looks exciting. Does anyone know why we were so warm in winter 2011-12 and not in 2010-11? They both had laninas. I know the nao/ao had alot to do with it, but why were they positive in 2011-12 but not in 2010-11? Been wondering that for a while now

#25 Stormlover

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Posted 14 July 2013 - 12:26 AM

View Posttennessee storm chaser, on 13 July 2013 - 11:47 PM, said:

Stormlover, i like that cfs map. Looks exciting. Does anyone know why we were so warm in winter 2011-12 and not in 2010-11? They both had laninas. I know the nao/ao had alot to do with it, but why were they positive in 2011-12 but not in 2010-11? Been wondering that for a while now
But it doesn't look good for this winter, remember? :Grinch-icon:  

Quote

"To all the weather nuts out there I say go for it. The more ideas,the more people see the better it is. Diversity of info is a good thing.."In the weather and in everything let Freedom ring.When there is competition and Freedom the best answer will come to the top"..."There is no authority in the weather.Models can hit they can miss but its the wonderment of it all that is what this is all about"
-Joe Bastardi-Weatherbell Analytics

#26 tennessee storm chaser

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Posted 30 July 2013 - 11:22 PM

Sd, this msg is for you but whoever feels like they can try to answer....go for it!. Ive been doing alot of reading, and the main reason these cold fronts have been coming down for this time of yr is the warmer arctic and the sst's in northern pacific and also the n atlantic with ridging. Sd, do u think this pattern can continue toward start of winter or will it break down soon? I personally thought the sst's were interesting and we havent seen it in a while....this type of configuration. Been a pretty go while since we seen a +pdo besides the nino of 2009-2010. A neutral isnt the best type of enso pattern to have for us, but its just a matter of timing getting the cold and precip to match up, if its not too progressive.

#27 SUB900

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Posted 01 August 2013 - 08:20 AM

Keep in mind that these seasonal models change quite often and dont have very good accuracy rates but here is the latest JAMSTEC AND CFS winter forecasts. Both llook like normal to warm winters. Im sure they will chnage several times over the next few months

Posted Image

The CFS for comparison
Posted Image
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#28 metallicwx366

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Posted 01 August 2013 - 09:52 AM

View PostSUB900, on 01 August 2013 - 08:20 AM, said:

Keep in mind that these seasonal models change quite often and dont have very good accuracy rates but here is the latest JAMSTEC AND CFS winter forecasts. Both llook like normal to warm winters. Im sure they will chnage several times over the next few months

Posted Image

The CFS for comparison
Posted Image
Ugh winter cancel.

Edited by metallicwx366, 01 August 2013 - 09:53 AM.


#29 Stormlover

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Posted 08 August 2013 - 11:22 AM

Per Weathertrends360:
Only 139 days until Christmas so thought we'd run down the wt360 forecast for the next 4 major holidays. Labor Day week - much cooler than last year with below average temperatures for the U.S. overall. Halloween is likely to be the warmest in 6 years for the U.S. Thanksgiving...brrrrrrr...coldest in 11 years. And the 25 days before Christmas look to be VERY STORMY & SNOWY & COLD! We've had two below average snowfall years in a row in December - rare we have 3 in a PDO Cycle. We're projecting a pattern more like the stormy Decembers in 2007-2010
Posted Image

Quote

"To all the weather nuts out there I say go for it. The more ideas,the more people see the better it is. Diversity of info is a good thing.."In the weather and in everything let Freedom ring.When there is competition and Freedom the best answer will come to the top"..."There is no authority in the weather.Models can hit they can miss but its the wonderment of it all that is what this is all about"
-Joe Bastardi-Weatherbell Analytics

#30 Tyler Penland

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Posted 08 August 2013 - 11:51 AM

Hmmmm. Most staying neutral/very weak nina.

Posted Image
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