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Flood/Severe Threat July 2-6, 2013


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#1 gawxnative

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Posted 01 July 2013 - 12:35 PM

Thought I would go ahead and start one.

#2 South AL Wx

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Posted 01 July 2013 - 04:07 PM

FFC has issued a Flash Flood Watch for portions of north Georgia:

DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS-
CHATTOOGA-GORDON-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-FLOYD-BARTOW-
CHEROKEE-FORSYTH-HALL-BANKS-JACKSON-MADISON-BARROW-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CALHOUN...DAHLONEGA...CLEVELAND...
ROME...CARTERSVILLE...GAINESVILLE
126 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...
  NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHWEST GEORGIA.

* FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING

* AN UNUSUAL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE SUMMER WILL BRING COPIOUS
  AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE TO GEORGIA THIS WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
  IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT WEST DURING THE WEEK AND WITH IT...AN AXIS
  OF STEADY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS.

* RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE LIKELY OVER THE WATCH
  AREA...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. PORTIONS OF NORTH
  GEORGIA ARE PRIMED FOR FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF
  STEEPER TERRAIN.
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#3 Tyler Penland

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Posted 01 July 2013 - 05:07 PM

Surprised they issued the watch today instead of waiting until tomorrow.
GFS still showing potential for up to 7-8" north of ATL. If things come together right I would imagine upslope could make that happen easily. IMO NE GA/SW NC and upstate SC are gonna get slammed on this, as well as parts of NW GA and into central TN.

Edited by Tyler Penland, 01 July 2013 - 05:09 PM.

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#4 gawxnative

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Posted 01 July 2013 - 06:08 PM

Another "problem" is with stream flows high and lake levels in GA at or near full pool (with some near flood) levels the Corps has very little wiggle room for flood control. Very unusual for this time of year...

#5 Met1985

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Posted 01 July 2013 - 08:10 PM

I think the flood watches and warning will continue to grow as we gp through the night and into tomorrow. I really look for things to get cranking tomorrow for our areas in NC,SC, and GA.

#6 Met1985

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Posted 01 July 2013 - 08:16 PM

Flooding concerns up north.

AVERY NC-BURKE NC-
857 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN...
  AVERY COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
  NORTHWESTERN BURKE COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 1100 PM EDT

* AT 853 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN
  AREA OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. DOPPLER RADAR
  ESTIMATED THAT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS THE
  ADVISORY IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...AND ANOTHER INCH IS LIKELY
  BEFORE THE RAIN TAPERS OFF.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS RAINFALL WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING TO OCCUR...
  ESPECIALLY ALONG SMALL STREAMS AND NEAR LOW WATER CROSSINGS. SOME
  LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING INCLUDE...
  NEWLAND...JONAS RIDGE AND LINVILLE. STREAMS THAT WILL BE
  AFFECTED INCLUDE THE LINVILLE RIVER AND SMALLER TRIBUTARIES.

#7 Met1985

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Posted 01 July 2013 - 10:40 PM

Really not impressed with the coverage of the precip tonight. I know this has been discussed already but the GFS is really not that impressive right know. Looks like tomorrow the foothills get in on the heavy stuff but then just scattered everywhere else.

#8 Met1985

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Posted 01 July 2013 - 10:53 PM

Not sure if the GFS is onto something or onto a big bust. Looking at tonights GFS model everthing misses the mountains and hits the foothills or hits GA,AL, and TN. It looks like the mountains do not even get an inch of rainfall through the 4th. This would be a good thing for outdoor activities and a big win by the GFS if this was right.

#9 SD

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Posted 01 July 2013 - 11:01 PM

View PostMet1985, on 01 July 2013 - 10:53 PM, said:

Not sure if the GFS is onto something or onto a big bust. Looking at tonights GFS model everthing misses the mountains and hits the foothills or hits GA,AL, and TN. It looks like the mountains do not even get an inch of rainfall through the 4th. This would be a good thing for outdoor activities and a big win by the GFS if this was right.

I wouldn't trust model qpf right now especially since they are missing on the axis of heavy rains on a daily basis and the fact every shower and storm is so efficient at producing significant rain. That said the big slug of dry air the models want to rotate in off of the Atlantic may limit totals for parts of nc while areas to the west get plenty of rain.
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#10 Met1985

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Posted 01 July 2013 - 11:11 PM

View PostSD, on 01 July 2013 - 11:01 PM, said:

I wouldn't trust model qpf right now especially since they are missing on the axis of heavy rains on a daily basis and the fact every shower and storm is so efficient at producing significant rain. That said the big slug of dry air the models want to rotate in off of the Atlantic may limit totals for parts of nc while areas to the west get plenty of rain.
First nice to see you posting. Ya it does seem that the models are having a very tough time with this setup. Also like you said once you get under one of these storms or showers they are flat out putting down the rain.

#11 Met1985

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Posted 02 July 2013 - 03:14 AM

GSP taking no chances with flooding and pulling a watch for just about everyone.

RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CLEVELAND-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-GREENWOOD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...CLARKESVILLE...TOCCOA...
HARTWELL...ELBERTON...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...CHEROKEE...
BRYSON CITY...WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...
BREVARD...HENDERSONVILLE...SHELBY...LENOIR...MORGANTON...MARION...
LAKE LURE...RUTHERFORD...COLUMBUS...GREENVILLE...SPARTANBURG...
GAFFNEY...ANDERSON...ABBEVILLE...LAURENS...UNION...GREENWOOD
340 AM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS
EXPANDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA...
  NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE
  FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA...ELBERT...FRANKLIN...
  HABERSHAM...HART...RABUN AND STEPHENS. IN NORTH CAROLINA...
  ALEXANDER...AVERY...BURKE MOUNTAINS...BUNCOMBE...CALDWELL
  MOUNTAINS...CLEVELAND...EASTERN MCDOWELL...EASTERN POLK...
  GREATER BURKE...GREATER CALDWELL...GREATER RUTHERFORD...
  GRAHAM...HAYWOOD...HENDERSON...MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS...MACON...
  MADISON...MITCHELL...NORTHERN JACKSON...POLK MOUNTAINS...
  RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS...SOUTHERN JACKSON...SWAIN...
  TRANSYLVANIA AND YANCEY. IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...
  ABBEVILLE...ANDERSON...CHEROKEE...GREATER GREENVILLE...
  GREATER OCONEE...GREATER PICKENS...GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS...
  GREENWOOD...LAURENS...OCONEE MOUNTAINS...PICKENS MOUNTAINS...
  SPARTANBURG AND UNION SC.

* FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

* GENERALLY 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS THE WATCH
  AREA...WITH THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS.

* THE HEAVY RAIN WILL RESULT IN RAPID RISES ON CREEKS AND
  STREAMS THAT WILL PUSH SOME OF THEM OUT OF THEIR BANKS. URBAN
  FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CHARLOTTE.

#12 Met1985

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Posted 02 July 2013 - 04:11 AM

It is pouring the rain again. This is the third staight day of seeing rainfall and we have seen rain 9 out of the last 10 days. Been a very wet stretch.

#13 Met1985

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Posted 02 July 2013 - 05:00 AM

QPF is beefed way up compared to last nights run. I still think it is under doing totals for the souther Apps. Something just does not look right about how the southern Apps miss out on the big totals. I think GFS is busting on this one.

#14 Met1985

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Posted 02 July 2013 - 05:16 AM

Rain is tapering off  but we should get more development later today coming off the Gulf.

#15 k0skinne

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Posted 02 July 2013 - 06:42 AM

For what it is worth, FFC has my area, Carrollton, GA, with a 100 percent chance of "Heavy Rain" both Wed. Night and Thursday.  It has been rare, if ever, I have seen a 100 percent chance of rain this far in advance.

#16 Taylor Campbell

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Posted 02 July 2013 - 09:09 AM

There could be a few isolated tornadoes.

   ...CNTRL GULF COAST...
   THE SRN EXTENSION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS
   THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY WITH A PRONOUNCED LOW-LEVEL JET
   LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE FL PANHANDLE. THIS
   FEATURE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE WRN FL PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY
   EVENING WHICH SHOULD HELP INCREASE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE CNTRL
   GULF COAST STATES. THE MODELS DEVELOP NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
   THE AXIS OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND GRADUALLY MOVE THE CONVECTION
   ONSHORE WEDNESDAY EVENING. DUE TO THE INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
   AND SHEAR...DISCRETE THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE INLAND COULD HAVE A
   MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT.
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#17 brax

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Posted 02 July 2013 - 10:22 AM

6z GFS is up to 3 inches for the ATL area between now and Saturday - most of it falling on the 4th.
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View Postatlwx, on 10 January 2010 - 09:35 AM, said:

I love the way 1993 is the equivalent of saying "Voldemort" in the weather community!


All hail SD, harbinger of the Mega -NAO.

#18 brax

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Posted 02 July 2013 - 10:41 AM

HPC 5 day QPF map:
Posted Image
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View Postatlwx, on 10 January 2010 - 09:35 AM, said:

I love the way 1993 is the equivalent of saying "Voldemort" in the weather community!


All hail SD, harbinger of the Mega -NAO.

#19 Thunder91

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Posted 02 July 2013 - 10:54 AM

View Postbrax, on 02 July 2013 - 10:41 AM, said:

HPC 5 day QPF map:
Posted Image
looks like 2 inches for most of metro atlanta if I'm reading that correctly. It also looks like it is showing an enormous amount of rainfall along the Gulf coast. Could that rain along the gulf cut off some rainfall further north around Atlanta ?

Edited by Thunder91, 02 July 2013 - 10:57 AM.


#20 brax

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Posted 02 July 2013 - 11:06 AM

View PostThunder91, on 02 July 2013 - 10:54 AM, said:

Could that rain along the gulf cut off some rainfall further north around Atlanta ?
I doubt it - The flow is just too powerful for convection down south to really affect the flow. We're not dealing with a winter cutoff low with minimal moisture to draw from. This is basically a monsoonal flow - a river in the sky.

The 12zNAM now agrees with the 6zGFS about 3+ inches of rain for the ATL area over the next 3 days.
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View Postatlwx, on 10 January 2010 - 09:35 AM, said:

I love the way 1993 is the equivalent of saying "Voldemort" in the weather community!


All hail SD, harbinger of the Mega -NAO.

#21 Tyler Penland

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Posted 02 July 2013 - 11:21 AM

View Postbrax, on 02 July 2013 - 11:06 AM, said:

I doubt it - The flow is just too powerful for convection down south to really affect the flow. We're not dealing with a winter cutoff low with minimal moisture to draw from. This is basically a monsoonal flow - a river in the sky.

The 12zNAM now agrees with the 6zGFS about 3+ inches of rain for the ATL area over the next 3 days.

It also shows Noah's flood up here with 5-6+" in spots. I'm actually rather nervous about this one, and I'm 98% certain we see some serious flash flooding issues up here tomorrow/Thursday.
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"Scratch my back with a lightning bolt   
Thunder rolls like a basedrum note
The sounds of the weather is heaven's ragtime band..."~JB

"We ask ourselves when we get in a fix, what would Popeye do in a tight spot like this?
He'd race for his true love and easily win it, in an old spinach can with a mast stuck in it..."~JB

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#22 Stormlover

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Posted 02 July 2013 - 11:44 AM

Frankie is on this

Quote

"To all the weather nuts out there I say go for it. The more ideas,the more people see the better it is. Diversity of info is a good thing.."In the weather and in everything let Freedom ring.When there is competition and Freedom the best answer will come to the top"..."There is no authority in the weather.Models can hit they can miss but its the wonderment of it all that is what this is all about"
-Joe Bastardi-Weatherbell Analytics

#23 storm5

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Posted 02 July 2013 - 11:56 AM

View PostStormlover, on 02 July 2013 - 11:44 AM, said:

Frankie is on this


Good grief

#24 brax

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Posted 02 July 2013 - 01:12 PM

View PostTyler Penland, on 02 July 2013 - 11:21 AM, said:

It also shows Noah's flood up here with 5-6+" in spots. I'm actually rather nervous about this one, and I'm 98% certain we see some serious flash flooding issues up here tomorrow/Thursday.
Funny you mention that - The setup kind of reminds me of the setup from a documentary I saw on ArkStorms and Atmospheric Rivers.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ARkStorm
http://en.wikipedia....mospheric_river
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View Postatlwx, on 10 January 2010 - 09:35 AM, said:

I love the way 1993 is the equivalent of saying "Voldemort" in the weather community!


All hail SD, harbinger of the Mega -NAO.

#25 brax

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Posted 02 July 2013 - 01:37 PM

View PostStormlover, on 02 July 2013 - 11:44 AM, said:

Frankie is on this
At least he didn't eat a fly for this one....

Don't forget to "wear your umbrella"... in Nashville, TN. :ninja:
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View Postatlwx, on 10 January 2010 - 09:35 AM, said:

I love the way 1993 is the equivalent of saying "Voldemort" in the weather community!


All hail SD, harbinger of the Mega -NAO.

#26 weatherman566

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Posted 02 July 2013 - 02:05 PM

Interesting to note that GFS is showing an area of low pressure trying to form late Wednesday night into Thursday along the Gulf coast. That could enhance the rain threat as the ULL retrogrades to the west. I'm thinking we could see heavier rainfall totals across eastern Alabama and into western Georgia, especially on Thursday. If that low forms, it would also enhance the tornado threat across AL/GA on Independence Day.  A formation of a low in the Gulf could add more problems. Something to watch.

#27 Taylor Campbell

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Posted 02 July 2013 - 03:26 PM

I think it is time BMX issues a flash flood watch. They should have real concerns for eastern AL with all that rain the GFS and NAM have shown. FFC has had flash flood watches out since yesterday and a special weather statement even longer ago.
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#28 Tyler Penland

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Posted 02 July 2013 - 04:06 PM

Here is Channel 11 out of Atlanta's RPM model data they posted earlier today. REALLY hope this doesn't verify.

Posted Image
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or Talkweather.com. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

"Scratch my back with a lightning bolt   
Thunder rolls like a basedrum note
The sounds of the weather is heaven's ragtime band..."~JB

"We ask ourselves when we get in a fix, what would Popeye do in a tight spot like this?
He'd race for his true love and easily win it, in an old spinach can with a mast stuck in it..."~JB

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#29 brax

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Posted 02 July 2013 - 04:11 PM

NAM just keeps going UP AND UP
Posted Image
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View Postatlwx, on 10 January 2010 - 09:35 AM, said:

I love the way 1993 is the equivalent of saying "Voldemort" in the weather community!


All hail SD, harbinger of the Mega -NAO.

#30 storm5

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Posted 02 July 2013 - 04:12 PM

View PostTaylor Campbell, on 02 July 2013 - 03:26 PM, said:

I think it is time BMX issues a flash flood watch. They should have real concerns for eastern AL with all that rain the GFS and NAM have shown. FFC has had flash flood watches out since yesterday and a special weather statement even longer ago.
Also the gfs is not as gung ho on the Atlantic ridge moving far enough to the west to really dry us out.Its starting to look wet through the weekend now....



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