47 replies to this topic

[Taylor Campbell]

Today the Storm Prediction Center has issued a large slight risk covering many Appalachian states. A 30% wind probability has been added to their newest outlook. Two severe thunderstorm watches are currently in place from southern West Virginia to extreme northeast Georgia.

A watches/warnings thread can be found here - http://www.talkweath...eswarnings-75/.

Edited by Taylor Campbell, 05 July 2012 - 01:04 PM.

[Tennesseestorm]

We are now in a watch here in northeast Tennessee and southwest Virginia.  Also numerous warnings for our area.  My county is under this warning...

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TNC091-163-VAC167-169-191-195-520-720-051915-
/O.NEW.KMRX.SV.W.0193.120705T1811Z-120705T1915Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
211 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  JOHNSON COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
  SULLIVAN COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
  RUSSELL COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...
  SCOTT COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...
  WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...
  WISE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...
  CITY OF BRISTOL IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...
  CITY OF NORTON IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 315 PM EDT

* AT 212 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
  HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THESE STORMS
  WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 33 MILES NORTH OF
  MCROBERTS TO 8 MILES EAST OF ASBERRYS...AND MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 35
  MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
  LEBANON...ABINGDON...WISE...NORTON...MOUNTAIN CITY...BRISTOL VA...
  BRISTOL TN...CLEVELAND...BIG STONE GAP...DYE...HONAKER...
  ROSEDALE...GLADE SPRING...LINDELL...EMORY-MEADOW VIEW...POUND...
  KONNAROCK...ST. PAUL...HANSONVILLE AND CASTLEWOOD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

[metallicwx366]

Tennesseestorm, on 05 July 2012 - 01:20 PM, said:

We are now in a watch here in northeast Tennessee and southwest Virginia.  Also numerous warnings for our area.  My county is under this warning...

You live in bristol right? Destructive 70mph winds

[Tennesseestorm]

metallicwx366, on 05 July 2012 - 01:36 PM, said:

You live in bristol right? Destructive 70mph winds

Yep, I live in Bristol Tennessee... they are on TV now saying not to travel until the storms have passed.  This is day #4 of severe weather at our house.

[Tennesseestorm]

The latest radar images look like the part heading my way is weakening, but I am not letting my guard down, as I have seen this happen before and it ends up being rough.  Also there are mountains in southwest Virginia and sometimes the radar beams make the radar returns look like it has weakened when it actually hasnt.  Temperatures are holding in the lower 90s with a dewpoint near 70°, so they certainally have plenty of fuel.  

We will see I guess.

Edited by Tennesseestorm, 05 July 2012 - 01:43 PM.

[Tennesseestorm]

Well now our local radar is getting bad looking again, so it was kinda what I expected.

[Cyclogent]

This ought to be interesting.  Mean flow for southeast TN and northwest GA late this afternoon is expected to be from the ENE or nearly parallel to the eastern face of the Cumberland Plateau.  That could enhance the wind threat a bit due the narrowing of the valley floor between the plateau and the mountains from about Cleveland down to Dalton/Chatsworth - wind channeling.

[brax]

This line forming is starting to look pretty nasty and really doesn't look to be losing any steam... if it survives another 4 hours it will likely be in the Atlanta area, and could mean widespread power outages after yesterdays heavy rain loosening up the soil some.


The HRRR thinks the Smokeys along the NC/TN border are going to rip these apart but I'm not so sure...

Edited by brax, 05 July 2012 - 03:08 PM.

[Weatherlover92]

It already looks like it's falling apart...

[ZackH]

I've rarely seen even the strongest MCS make it successfully in tact over that part of the smokies when moving south southwest. It does look like its already started to break up. If the outflow can get south of the mountains before peak heating ends we may see some redevelopment, however. The main problem is lack of shear. Once an organized system like that falls apart its going to be hard for it to organize again in an environment with little to no shear. It formed originally in an area with a bit more favorable wind profiles.  Down here we just don't have anything going on except CAPE.  I think the most likely scenario is that we will see some individual pulse or multicellular development along the cold pool edge as it makes it past the mountains with isolated severe wind chances or a marginal hailer.  I don't see the line holding together or redeveloping into a well developed MCS but who knows? It will be interesting to watch.

EDIT: Of course, now it looks like it may be (? hard to say) getting better organized again... at least the part entering into Central/Eastern TN... the more easterly part really broke up over the mountains and that's the part that would mainly effect the metro Atlanta area.  NW Georgia and Alabama could maybe still get in on the MCS action if the outflow doesn't outrun the complex too quickly.

Edited by ZackH, 05 July 2012 - 04:50 PM.

[brax]

Yeah it really surprised me that it's re-intensified. I fully expected it to be all light rain by now after looking over the past few HRRR runs.

[Tyler Penland]

I have no idea what to expect here. Limited on resources at work but  looks like warnings where there shouldn't be any in parts of NC to my north and northwes.

[brax]

Tyler Penland, on 05 July 2012 - 05:42 PM, said:

I have no idea what to expect here. Limited on resources at work but  looks like warnings where there shouldn't be any in parts of NC to my north and northwes.

The geography in that area, along with distant radars makes it hard to get really good shots of thunderstorms with level2 data, but here's a screen shot for you.

Edited by brax, 05 July 2012 - 05:54 PM.

[Tyler Penland]

Thanks brax. I have radarscopr bit it keeps breaking out. Last update did something to it.

[aarontabr]

Will this squall line mean anything for north Alabama? Right now there is a cell over north Huntsville that is not moving.

[Taylor Campbell]

Tyler Penland, on 05 July 2012 - 06:05 PM, said:

Thanks brax. I have radarscopr bit it keeps breaking out. Last update did something to it.

Delete, and re-install. I haven't had troubles with apple.

[Cyclogent]

Knoxville airport officially reported max sutained of 43 mph with a gust of 58mph as the line approached.  Widespread reports of trees and power lines down in Knox county with 56,000 homes without power in the Knoxville area. Here's a pic just posted on knoxnews.com

[campamy]

Omg.... this line is serious. Still not totally here and I'm amazed. Power off immediately, trees falling. Can't even estimate the strength of these winds. Like being in the outflows of 4/27 if not worse. Not at home, but in Old Fort, TN right now. Will post pics of the line coming over the mountains later when I get power back.

[Cyclogent]

gust front now racing through Hamilton County.  max sustained IMBY 47mph, peak gust 56mph, from the NE

[Mike Puckett]

We just got home from Florida around 6:30. Went through a couple showers on the way..thought we were gonna run head-on into the line that came through Va. but it passed right to our west. Started pouring when we got close to home and the clouds are something I've never seen around this area. I've seen skies like that in pics from storm chasers...these things were wicked looking.

Edited by Mike Puckett, 05 July 2012 - 06:45 PM.

[Tyler Penland]

Storms exploding north and northwest of me now with gust fronts visible n ffc and gsp both.
That worked for my radar Taylor. thanks!

[Taylor Campbell]

Mike Puckett, on 05 July 2012 - 06:44 PM, said:

We just got home from Florida around 6:30. Went through a couple showers on the way..thought we were gonna run head-on into the line that came through Va. but it passed right to our west. Started pouring when we got close to home and the clouds are something I've never seen around this area. I've seen skies like that in pics from storm chasers...these things were wicked looking.

No damage to your property from previous storms correct?

I bet your glad those storms weren't in your line of path. Heavy downpours and traveling is dangerous.

[Cyclogent]

KCHA currently reporting wind gust of 48mph.

[aarontabr]

The line has fallen apart. Let's hope that bigg mass of rain over east Tennessee makes it to Huntsville.

[Mike Puckett]

Taylor Campbell, on 05 July 2012 - 06:57 PM, said:

No damage to your property from previous storms correct?

I bet your glad those storms weren't in your line of path. Heavy downpours and traveling is dangerous.

Nope I haven't seen any damage yet. The neighbors doghouse and various crap from their yard was over here lol but other than that nothing. Haven't really made the rounds, but from what I see it's good. And heck yeah...I was watching my Radarscope like a hawk coming up 26 and 77. I knew either A) It was gonna barely miss to our west or B) I was probably gonna be pulling over somewhere til it nailed us and went away.

[Jack Watkins]

Getting beat up pretty good here in Central Alabama near Calera. Only pea sized hail but some of the heaviest rain I have seen in a very long time.

1.08" in 28 minutes, and most of it fell in the first 10-15 minutes. It was dumpin'!

Edited by Jack Watkins, 05 July 2012 - 07:39 PM.
Edited to add precip

[Tennesseestorm]

Well I wanted to update, here at my house we were lucky!  We didnt even lose power (they did flicker though), but alot of people in town lost power and their phones.  There were alot of tree damage in the area and alot of lightning.  One lightning strike we had felt like an earthquake!! It shook the ground for about 20 seconds when the thunder started to rumble.  

My cousin who lives near Johnson City said her power was out for 3 hours and just recently came back on.

[metallicwx366]

Another boring rainless day here.

[Taylor Campbell]

metallicwx366, on 05 July 2012 - 07:40 PM, said:

Another boring rainless day here.

Me too. I cry when days like this continue. When are you going to get us a hurricane?

Edited by Taylor Campbell, 05 July 2012 - 08:28 PM.

[Tyler Penland]

Well, north end of the county went under a warning but we didn't get a single drop of rain either at the store or here at home. It rained in between though. Go figure.