19 replies to this topic

[SD]

Looks like after the extreme heat we get into a more typical summer type pattern with weak eastern troughing and a Bermuda ridge, so things should get more humid with a much better chance of storms, wouldn't be surprised that if late next week we get a weak piece of upper level energy trapped over the region that retrogrades from the Carolina's to toward the Mississippi rivière. That should help produce storms. Mcs should become quite a common occurrence as well with the nw flow aloft established and we may see a cold front try to get into the region toward 7-10. I think though by mid July the heat will return again in full force as the ridge tries to surge east

[Taylor Campbell]

We are about to get soaked through the end of the forecast period (384hrs). Yesterday's and today's 00z/12z run of the GFS model indicates widespread rainfall totals in the 5-6 inch range! A persistent pattern with western ridging, eastern troughing, and a Bermuda ridge will pull a lot of gulf moisture north.

[gaalan]

"Post heat", or, winter, as many call it!  Sorry couldn't resist.  June started out very nice only to go out like a tyrannosaur.  Had only 8 days of 90 or warmer this June versus 24 last year.  We also need better coverage from any future rainfall.  I had only a trace from storms that produced 1.62" for Hartsfield airport some 12 miles away.  Grasses and many woody plants around here have lots of dead foliage.

[Taylor Campbell]

Wow!

[metallicwx366]

That map is extremely confusing to me because of the white areas. That has us with 2.6 inches I guess. I know we have a chance of rain everyday for the next 10 days in my forecast.

[Mike Calloway]

That map shows me getting about 6-7 inches. Hard to imagine getting that much rain in a drought. Last time I had more than 5 inches of rain in a month was back in March of 2011.

[brax]

[Taylor Campbell]

The GFS model continues to show many areas receiving 3+ inches of rainfall in the coming two weeks.

[brax]

Most of the rain appears to come near the end of next week.

[SD]

Stalled cold front, pieces of energy, break in the ridge, flow from the atlantic and gulf. Should be a recipe for heavy rain from Wednesday through Friday or Saturday before the heat ridge may come back. Wherever the front stalls will have a great chance to see 3+ inches of rain with .5-1 in most locals.

[campamy]

Hate to do this, but vacay is coming up.  Any tropical systems showing up in the next 2 weeks that might be a partial cause of all the rain being forecasted or is it defintely just the stalled front?  I'll be in the panhandle the week of the 23rd and already starting to worry lol.

[Thunder91]

SD, on 05 July 2012 - 10:43 PM, said:

Stalled cold front, pieces of energy, break in the ridge, flow from the atlantic and gulf. Should be a recipe for heavy rain from Wednesday through Friday or Saturday before the heat ridge may come back. Wherever the front stalls will have a great chance to see 3+ inches of rain with .5-1 in most locals.

.5-1" would be a huge disappointment. It's going to take a lot more than that to put a dent in the drought we're in !

[tennessee storm chaser]

campamy, on 06 July 2012 - 09:33 AM, said:

Hate to do this, but vacay is coming up.  Any tropical systems showing up in the next 2 weeks that might be a partial cause of all the rain being forecasted or is it defintely just the stalled front?  I'll be in the panhandle the week of the 23rd and already starting to worry lol.

to be honest with you amy.  think you are safe next 2 weeks...might have to deal with a stall out front at best, than that may get washed out... enjoy yourself there, brace for plenty of florida sun and the typical afternoon florida pop ups.

[SD]

campamy, on 06 July 2012 - 09:33 AM, said:

Hate to do this, but vacay is coming up.  Any tropical systems showing up in the next 2 weeks that might be a partial cause of all the rain being forecasted or is it defintely just the stalled front?  I'll be in the panhandle the week of the 23rd and already starting to worry lol.

I wouldnt sweat the tropics for a while. The MJO isnt supportive and really the front doesnt make it deep enough in the gulf to cause mischief. There may be some energy that moves across florida as the bermuda ridge builds in but that would most likely be weak and of no big consequence.

[SD]

Thunder91, on 06 July 2012 - 11:02 AM, said:

.5-1" would be a huge disappointment. It's going to take a lot more than that to put a dent in the drought we're in !

Its a convective pattern so trusting model qpf is dangerous and since its convective your backyard could see something like .1 while surrounding areas get 2-4 inches. I think that by the end of the 10 day period starting today most people have seen a nice rainfall event however its touchy. I do think that there will end up being some flooding issues along the front where areas could see 4-8 inches of rain over the next 10 days. The big question as always is where does the front set up

[metwannabe]

SD, on 06 July 2012 - 08:59 PM, said:

Its a convective pattern so trusting model qpf is dangerous and since its convective your backyard could see something like .1 while surrounding areas get 2-4 inches. I think that by the end of the 10 day period starting today most people have seen a nice rainfall event however its touchy. I do think that there will end up being some flooding issues along the front where areas could see 4-8 inches of rain over the next 10 days. The big question as always is where does the front set up

This would be my luck...imby I have not had measurable rain since 6/4!!  Garden - dying; grass - crunchy brown.....rain shield in full effect here.  Hope I can cash in next week.

[Cyclogent]

Rain and cooler temps!  Yay, finally.  But like others have mentioned some of the rain gonna be coming down in a hurry.  For this week, I'd say we'll see at least a couple days where there would be urban & small stream flood advisories/flash flood warnings in areas up to 100 miles north/south of a Huntsville AL to Norfolk VA line.  WOuldn't suprise me if there were isolated 8-10+ inch totals as well.

[SD]

The 0z GFS may be having some convective feedback issues as it generates nearly 10 inches plus of rain over the next 8 days in NC. Either way with the HPC forecast of 4-5 inches in the next 5 days and the models having 4+ I think we are looking at a healthy rainfall period.

[Met1985]

SD, on 08 July 2012 - 12:18 AM, said:

The 0z GFS may be having some convective feedback issues as it generates nearly 10 inches plus of rain over the next 8 days in NC. Either way with the HPC forecast of 4-5 inches in the next 5 days and the models having 4+ I think we are looking at a healthy rainfall period.

It looks like NC as a whole may see lots of rain from this. From the mountains to the coast looks like a very good chance for rain from this front. My high temp from Tuesday to the weekend looks like 75 degrees everyday with lows in the 50s! Much needed break from this heat. We ended our string of 90s today with a high of 88 degrees and all downhill from here on.

[Mike Puckett]

Man look at that cooldown! I'm clearly not the kinda guy that roots for t-storms especially the severe coming Sun. night/Mon...but bringing that kind of relief from this 100ish degrees every day? Bring it on!