14 replies to this topic

[buckeye05]

Things are shaping up for a potentially major event late tonight into tomorrow across Saskatchewan. There is a chance for severe storms tonight, and maybe a tornado or two. The biggest threat will be tomorrow. The potential exists for strong, long track tornadoes. The EHI values are completely maxed out across southern SK tomorrow, moisture looks to be plentiful with dewpoints into the 70s, and bulk shear looks good too. Veering winds are present as well. The puzzle pieces seem to be falling into place, and the cities of Moosejaw, Weyburn, and Regina could be under the gun tomorrow. Overnight convection is one very possible caveat though. Another Canadian setup was ruined because of this earlier this month.

Quote from storm chaser Greg Johnson about tomorrow:

"The storm is not set up exactly the same but certainly the threat level were experiencing in Saskatchewan is the same as it was in Joplin, Missouri last year,"  

Edited by buckeye05, 25 June 2012 - 05:15 PM.

[Mike Puckett]

buckeye05, on 25 June 2012 - 05:02 PM, said:

Things are shaping up for a potentially major event late tonight into tomorrow across Saskatchewan. There is a chance for severe storms tonight, and maybe a tornado or two. The biggest threat will be tomorrow. The potential exists for strong, long track tornadoes. The EHI values are completely maxed out across southern SK tomorrow, moisture looks to be plentiful with dewpoints into the 70s, and bulk shear looks good too. Veering winds are present as well. The puzzle pieces seem to be falling into place, and the cities of Moosejaw, Weyburn, and Regina could be under the gun tomorrow. Overnight convection is one very possible caveat though. Another Canadian setup was ruined because of this earlier this month.

Quote from storm chaser Greg Johnson about tomorrow:

"The storm is not set up exactly the same but certainly the threat level were experiencing in Saskatchewan is the same as it was in Joplin, Missouri last year,"  

Are there radar programs for Canada along the same lines as Grlvl3 and such?

[buckeye05]

Mike Puckett, on 25 June 2012 - 05:21 PM, said:

Are there radar programs for Canada along the same lines as Grlvl3 and such?

None that I know of. Canadian events are pretty hard to track IMO. I use Environment Canada, and it's pretty bleh.

Edited by buckeye05, 25 June 2012 - 05:39 PM.

[andyhb]

From the Prairie Storm Prediction Center:

Quote

DAY 2 LOOKS EVEN MORE VOLATILE, WITH A POTENTIAL OUTBREAK OF SEVERE
WEATHER ON TAP. DETAILS OF COURSE WILL DEPEND HIGHLY ON OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION TONIGHT AND MOISTURE, BUT A MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE JUXTAPOSED WITH SIGNIFICANT VEERING
OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT. TORNADOES, PERHAPS ONE
OR TWO LONG-TRACK, LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BEFORE YET ANOTHER SQUALL LINE FORMS AND BLASTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE A 100 KM CIRCLE CENTERED AROUND ABOUT MOOSE
JAW. IF THIS SCENARIO DOES PROCEED AS CURRENTLY FORECAST, A
CATEGORICAL UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK MAY BE NECESSARY FOR PARTS OF THE
REGION.  

[Kolle]

buckeye05, on 25 June 2012 - 05:36 PM, said:

None that I know of. Canadian events are pretty hard to track IMO. I use Environment Canada, and it's pretty bleh.

You can view reflectivity data here: http://www.weatherof...ar/index_e.html

But I ask more knowledgeable folks this: Do you think either the Glasgow, MT or Minot AFB NEXRADs could see things unfold tomorrow, or is the threat too far out of their range?

[buckeye05]

[andyhb]

H7 temps don't look too good though.

[Taylor Campbell]

Does anyone know if Reed is up there for this one? He has been there before for to see a violent tornado.

[andyhb]

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISCUSSION ISSUED BY THE PRAIRIE AND ARCTIC STORM
PREDICTION CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 7:00 AM CDT TUESDAY JUNE
26 2012.

THERE IS HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER
SOUTHWESTRN SASKATCHEWAN. SLIGHT RISK SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHEAST ALBERTA.

WATCHES, WARNINGS, AND STATEMENTS... SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
STILL IN EFFECT FOR SMALL AREA OF SOUTHWESTRN SASKATCHEAN AND WILL
BE ENDED SHORTLY. RAINFALL WARNING FOR SOUTHWEST FOOTHILLS OF
ALBERTA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR SOUTHEAST ALBERTA.

HUMIDEX ADVISORY ISSUED FOR SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA AND SOUTHEASTERN
SASKATCHEWAN FOR TODAY.

OVERVIEW...UPPER RIDGE HAVE MOVED INTO MANITOBA. UPPER TROF OVER
EASTERN PACIFIC WITH UPPER LOW OFF WASHINGTON-OREGON COAST LEAVING
ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN IN SWLY FLOW.
WATER VAPOUR IMAGERY SHOW VERY STRONG VORT MAX OVER SERN OREGON
EARLY THIS MORNIG MOVING NEWD TOWARDS CNTRL IDAHO. THIS VORT MAX
IS EXPECTED TO HELP FORMING SFC LOW OVER NRN MONTANA NEAR NOON
TODAY AND MOVE IN NWD ALONG AB-SK BORDER. SELY LOW LVL FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS LOW HAVE BEEN CONTINUING ADVECTION LOW LVL MOISTURE
INTO SRN SK AND SWRN MANITOBA. DEW POINTS ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER
TEENS OVER SRN SK AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER 20C THIS AFTERNOON.
THETA W VALUES IN THE MID TWENTIES ASSOCIATED. AIRMASS WILL BE
CAPPED OVER SERN SK AND SRN MANITOBA BUT CAP WILL BE BROKEN
OVER SWRN SK THIS AFTERNOON. LI WILL REACH -6 TO -8 AND MLCAPES
OVER 3000 J/KG. WITH VERY SIGNIFICANT WINDSHEAR WE EXPECT
SUPERCELLS TO FORM WITH LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. COMPARE YESTERDAY
SET UP TODAY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE SURFACE BASED WITH STRONGER
SHEAR AND LARGE MID LVL LAPSE RATES, DO NOT HAVE TIME FOR LONGER
DISCUSSION AT PRESENT TIME SINCE WE STILL HAVE WARNINGS FOR SWRN SK.

ALBERTA...SLIGHT RISK SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEASTERN
ALBERTA EARLY TODAY IN ADVANCE OF UPPER LOW. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES COMBINED WITH STRONG DEEP SHEAR AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO
MID TEENS WILL CREATE THE RECIPE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ALBERTA AGAIN TODAY. THE RISK WILL END LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW AND ASOCTD JET MOVE FURTHER EAST. IN
ADDITION THE SYSTEM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN FOOTHILLS TODAY WITH 50 TO 70 MM EXPECTED BY THIS
EVENING. THE RAIN AREA WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NEWD AS THE LOW
MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST. RAINFALL WARNINGS MAY BE EXTENDED NEWD
AS THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

WESTERN ARCTIC...EXPECT TO SEE AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
MACKENZIE VALLEY AS FAR NORTH AS FORT GOOD HOPE AGAIN TODAY. THE AMS
REMAINS UNSTABLE BUT WITH ONLY WEAK SHEAR DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE ANY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. ELSW NIL SIG WEATHER.

IN THE EASTERN ARCTIC.. NO SIG WEATHER.

END/GERLYAND/MACKAY

Edited by andyhb, 26 June 2012 - 01:41 PM.

[Mike Puckett]

Taylor Campbell, on 26 June 2012 - 10:09 AM, said:

Does anyone know if Reed is up there for this one? He has been there before for to see a violent tornado.

He is along with 2 or 3 other tvn chasers

[Kolle]

It is not often one sees this pronounced a hook echo from 160 MILES OUT. This is the Glasgow, MT NEXRAD looking towards Moose Jaw, SK.

[metallicwx366]

Were there any tornadoes?

[andyhb]

Yes, large tornado on stream a few mins ago.

[djbarker]

Kolle, on 26 June 2012 - 06:44 PM, said:

It is not often one sees this pronounced a hook echo from 160 MILES OUT. This is the Glasgow, MT NEXRAD looking towards Moose Jaw, SK.

"Billy hails from, if I can read the card here...Moose Jaw, Saskatchewan."

Edited by djbarker, 27 June 2012 - 02:34 PM.

[Mike Puckett]

Kolle, on 26 June 2012 - 06:44 PM, said:

It is not often one sees this pronounced a hook echo from 160 MILES OUT. This is the Glasgow, MT NEXRAD looking towards Moose Jaw, SK.

Looks like a moose knuckle