26 replies to this topic

[Cyclogent]

Hope everyone getting a good soaking this weekend.  Heh, not here.  It's been another Ugh!  Another disappointing event that was supposed to drop significant rainfall but didn't.  Even with a low pressure system tracking directly over us, we still got screwed here.  0.71" system total thus far, and most likely gonna finish less than 1" with only the showers on the backside of the system to move thru, vs a forecasted total of 2" to 2.5".  That has been the pattern past 60 days for KCHA...high expecations but low results.  The long range looks high and dry. I'm thinking this year's April/May/June will end up being a top 5 driest for KCHA. July onward should get us back on track though based on teleconnections with ENSO SST's and NAO/AO phases.  But between now and July, yuck, little relief in sight.

[SD]

I disagree a little. While the pattern is less than ideal for a ton of rain it's not a terribly dry looking one either east coast troughs on a regular basis so we should see some chances of rain at least once or twice a week. Also we may start to see a central us ridge attempt to develop which means we shouldn't be too far from mcs season which can be very beneficial. I just dont see a crispy dry pattern like we have started off some early summers in the recent past with. I also feel pretty confident we will see some type of tropical mess drawn into the region during June that will be helpful

[Cyclogent]

I agree this shouldn't be a regionwide thing, I was thinking just for some parts of the southeast for drought or a persistence pattern.  In the past 60 days, there's a well defined axis of well below normal precip that stretches from southwest KY to southeast TN to central GA.  North and south of that axis, rainfall has been closer to normal, and some parts of the southeast region have even been above normal. Paducah, Chattanooga, Macon, Augusta am thinking rainfall well below normal now through end of June, but rest of the southeast should be better off.

When we get into MCS season, I have a hunch that we'll see 2 types of tracks....track 1 Ohio to the Carolinas, and track 2 Missouri to southern Alabama.  I think the southern Illinois to southern Georgia track is gonna be a no show this year.

[Bama Snow Miser]

Just what does mcs stand for? lol  Still learning the lingo

[copasetic]

Mesoscale Convective System

[gaalan]

The weekend system totaled 1.08" for me.  Only 0.09" less than all of April.  That month was dominated by a death ridge type pattern.  YTD rain total is 3-4" below normal for the majority of the metro area.  Not too bad considering how many days this year temps have been above normal.  Just keep us within striking distance.

[Ghost]

Drought Monitor of the SE

[metallicwx366]

We're in the extreme drought category here. Most of NC and SC should improve with the next after the heavy rains they saw yesterday.

[Tennesseestorm]

We are one of the exceptions... have had plenty of rain here in northeast Tennessee and adjacent southwest Virginia.

[Mike Calloway]

Over here in Weaver, eastern part of Alabama, our rainfall total for the month is 2.31 inches. Rainfall for the year is only at 13.94 inches, about 10 inches below normal so far for the year.

[Cyclogent]

Here's what I had in mind into early July, basically a persistence pattern from the past 60 days.  Later this week, we'll get our first glimpse of early summer ridge position #1 pictured below, and then by early June we should get our first glimpse of early summer ridge position #2. Back and forth with the ridge center IMO until early July depending on the position and strength of the east coast/western atlantic trough.  

And all of this is actually my way of testing and validating some upcoming winter analogs.  If this pans out, then I'll post winter maps in before Labor Day, but if not I'll punt on figuring out what winter will bring.

[Cyclogent]

To put the lack of rainfall in Chattanooga into persepective...if we go back the past 80 years, the driest April+May was 1941 with 3.71 inches of rain.  April+May thus far in 2012 stands at 2.69 inches. Looking at pattern now through end of the month it appears highly unlikely we will see the 1.03 inches of rain we need to avoid April+May 2012 being the driest in at least the past 80 years. In fact, I don't think we will see ANY rain for the remainder of the month.

5 out of the 6 driest April+May in the past 80 years also had below normal June rainfall, and the average for those 5 June's is 2.35 inches. A hydrologic Spring (April/May/June) with a mere 5 inches of precip @ KCHA is on the far extreme end of climo...but looks like that's what can be expected per the historical observations/analogs.  Ugh.


.

[SD]

Im glad you presented the evidence because for a while I was starting to think that you were totally nuts . That said the collapse of the nina and the tendency of the nao to stay at least neutral to negative through mid June will lead to a pattern with chances of rain and only transient bouts of heat. That said it does promote a severe NW flow pattern which isnt one that really screams drought buster in the SE and we will start having to look more toward MCS development as we get into June. Ive said this before and I will say it again...watch the tropics something will get jerked into the SE before mid June whether or not it has a name.


EDIT: Just looked at your post again....position #2 is what I am thinking 100%

Edited by SD, 22 May 2012 - 09:00 PM.

[Taylor Campbell]

I think we will see some relief for areas toward the end of this month and beginning of next.

--> http://www.talkweath...1-612012-storm/

[Met1985]

Have gotten about 4 inches of rain in 4 days so far.

[Tyler Penland]

Met1985, on 23 May 2012 - 10:23 PM, said:

Have gotten about 4 inches of rain in 4 days so far.

Lucky. Cleveland (only 3 miles north of me) has gotten a few inches in the past 4 days. Its also rained several times at my girlfriend's house only ~1.5 miles straight line distance from me. But here? Nope. Didn't get the first drop until today. Amounted to a whole .2"
My garden is my curse.

[Met1985]

Tyler Penland, on 23 May 2012 - 11:02 PM, said:

Lucky. Cleveland (only 3 miles north of me) has gotten a few inches in the past 4 days. Its also rained several times at my girlfriend's house only ~1.5 miles straight line distance from me. But here? Nope. Didn't get the first drop until today. Amounted to a whole .2"
My garden is my curse.

Wow crazy how some places get hammered and some places get nothing. Man good luck with the garden. I cannot even keep up mowing the yard.

[metallicwx366]

Met1985, on 23 May 2012 - 10:23 PM, said:

Have gotten about 4 inches of rain in 4 days so far.

It seems like you get all the action up there in Haywood County.

[Met1985]

metallicwx366, on 24 May 2012 - 12:47 AM, said:

It seems like you get all the action up there in Haywood County.

Lol ya it does seem that way here recently. Looks like you are going to bake this weekend! Ya the weather here of late has been interesting. Heavy fog in the morning turns to clouds and then maybe a shower then the sun comes out and then the flood gates open up. No real heat and humidity. Just enough sun to get things active and keep the temps at a nice 60 degrees during the afternoon.

[Vic]

I've only had 2.64" total since March 30th.

[Cyclogent]

April+May at KCHA driest in at least 85 years.  3.19" of precip for April 1 to May 31.  Thus far, there are a few years that stand out as good analog matches for similar precip pattern for April+May and ENSO SST evolution.  For the month of June, I expect 2.25" of rain for KCHA (give or take).

[Cyclogent]

[SD]

Looks like the typhoon in the wpac is going to get captured and stick around in the wpac for a while and that really muddies the long range forecast. Most recurring typhoons teleconnect to an eastern trough in 8-10 days so lets see if that happens eventually. It was a big basis of why I thought we would see general troughing for quite a while

[djbarker]

Tyler Penland, on 23 May 2012 - 11:02 PM, said:

Its also rained several times at my girlfriend's house

Yes, yes it has    

[Tyler Penland]

djbarker, on 05 June 2012 - 08:23 AM, said:

Yes, yes it has    

Missing the reference here, although by the whistle I assume it is inappropriate.

[djbarker]

Just a little humor...sorry.

[Tyler Penland]

djbarker, on 05 June 2012 - 09:28 AM, said:

Just a little humor...sorry.

Oh no prob with it on this end. I live in "the gutter" and make jokes like that all the time (ask said girlfriend). Just took WAY too long to get your reference.