12 replies to this topic

[SD]

For a good portion of the region with many people pushing 90 all week. The closer you get to the carolinas the more your possibly to get tempered back by back door fronts and maybe a mcs. Things should start to head back more toward normal late next weekend as the SE ridge may retrograde to the plains or even sw and we see the eastern us troughing attempt to reappear

[Met1985]

SD, on 29 April 2012 - 12:25 AM, said:

For a good portion of the region with many people pushing 90 all week. The closer you get to the carolinas the more your possibly to get tempered back by back door fronts and maybe a mcs. Things should start to head back more toward normal late next weekend as the SE ridge may retrograde to the plains or even sw and we see the eastern us troughing attempt to reappear

SD looking into the end of next week looks like things could get intersting like you said with maybe a trough setting up over the East. Looking at the teleconnections the AO and NAO look to go negaitve for a few days with the PNA going positive and the MJO looks like it may work its way into a weak phase 8 in the coming week or two. The heat looks to take hold pretty good next week. Have highs right around 80 with a chance of storm everyday. Seems like a summer forecast.

[bhs1975]

Met1985, on 29 April 2012 - 12:38 AM, said:

SD looking into the end of next week looks like things could get intersting like you said with maybe a trough setting up over the East. Looking at the teleconnections the AO and NAO look to go negaitve for a few days with the PNA going positive and the MJO looks like it may work its way into a weak phase 8 in the coming week or two. The heat looks to take hold pretty good next week. Have highs right around 80 with a chance of storm everyday. Seems like a summer forecast.

Nowadays its more like upper 90s and 100s most of the summer. 80s would be the low temps with a 75 dewpoint. Not looking forward to it.

[metallicwx366]

Yep hot.

[apocalyptic_pleasures]

Quote

US National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
As of 6pm: Tallahassee had a high of 94° today, which was 1 degree shy of both the daily record high and the all-time April record high of 95°. Other highs around the area through 6pm: Valdosta 96°, Perry 95°, Cross City 93°, Albany 92°, Marianna 90°, Dothan 89°, Panama City Airport 88°, Apalachicola 85°.

[metallicwx366]

Woah 96! We hit 93 today and broke the record of 92 set in 1992.

[SD]

Met1985, on 29 April 2012 - 12:38 AM, said:

SD looking into the end of next week looks like things could get intersting like you said with maybe a trough setting up over the East. Looking at the teleconnections the AO and NAO look to go negaitve for a few days with the PNA going positive and the MJO looks like it may work its way into a weak phase 8 in the coming week or two. The heat looks to take hold pretty good next week. Have highs right around 80 with a chance of storm everyday. Seems like a summer forecast.

Yeah there could be quite the dramatic flip late next weekend but we are starting to approach the time of year where fronts run into a bit more resistance and it's all about the configuration of the north atlantic. It could be just a modest cool down for the region as heights lower with most cooling occurring in the Carolina's with a wedge and back door front or it could be a sweeping frontal passage.

[Met1985]

SD, on 29 April 2012 - 10:57 PM, said:

Yeah there could be quite the dramatic flip late next weekend but we are starting to approach the time of year where fronts run into a bit more resistance and it's all about the configuration of the north atlantic. It could be just a modest cool down for the region as heights lower with most cooling occurring in the Carolina's with a wedge and back door front or it could be a sweeping frontal passage.

Ya good point. I am like dang where were these dips this winter! Oh well all i would like is some damn normal weather. Some rain sun and 70s. Lol ya only in the perfect weather world. What do you think about the upcoming summer SD?

[SD]

Met1985, on 29 April 2012 - 11:07 PM, said:

Ya good point. I am like dang where were these dips this winter! Oh well all i would like is some damn normal weather. Some rain sun and 70s. Lol ya only in the perfect weather world. What do you think about the upcoming summer SD?

To be honest im thinking a near normal summer with heat loaded in june and part of july then tempering back to near or below for august. Think hurricane season comes in near or slightly above normal with a good chance of a hurricane hit between daytona and hatteras. Still need to really dig into things busy these days. Really at this point we need to see what develops in the pac nino wise a later or no development of this feature will ruin a forecast especially hurricane wise. My big fear is that models are over doing pac warming with the -pdo in place

[Tyler Penland]

Hot is an understatement. Got to go fishing for the first time this season and got an early start this morning around 7. It was just about too hot to fish well before lunch. The fish agreed as we caught one bass this morning and that was it for 6 hours of casting.

Edited by Tyler Penland, 30 April 2012 - 03:44 PM.

[gaalan]

High of 88 today.  At least the 90s held off till May.  In the last 15 years, the earliest date with a high of 90 or warmer here was May 8, 2004.  This hot spell may make that second place.

[Thunder91]

SD, on 30 April 2012 - 01:36 PM, said:

To be honest im thinking a near normal summer with heat loaded in june and part of july then tempering back to near or below for august. Think hurricane season comes in near or slightly above normal with a good chance of a hurricane hit between daytona and hatteras. Still need to really dig into things busy these days. Really at this point we need to see what develops in the pac nino wise a later or no development of this feature will ruin a forecast especially hurricane wise. My big fear is that models are over doing pac warming with the -pdo in place

I just think it's going to be hard to have a near normal summer temp wise with such a horrible drought going on across much of the south. I said last fall we were due for a warm winter and that proved to be true. Unfortunately, I'm not sure if we'll be lucky enough to have a normal or mild summer, even though we are due for one. I should point out though that WSI is forecasting most of the south to be below normal temp-wise from May-July. The only areas of the south they are forecasting to be above normal is in NC and East TN. This is a little bit of what WSI says about the upcoming summer in AL and GA:

“The combination of an emerging El Nino event, expectations for relatively muted levels of atmospheric blocking and cooler North Atlantic ocean temperatures, all suggest a milder summer, especially in those areas of the southern US that have been plagued by hot summers in recent years

I hope and pray they are right ! I would love to have another summer like we had in 2003.

Edited by Thunder91, 30 April 2012 - 08:58 PM.

[brax]

The NAM keeps saying dry and hot for  us this week, but GFS keeps saying its going to rain... Heres rooting for the GFS...