81 replies to this topic

[Brent In Atl]

metallicwx366, on 19 April 2012 - 03:19 PM, said:

Lolz..
This weather this weekend is not anything interesting anymore. Severe threat is only a 5% across Florida. The rainfall totals have been cut here.

The models completely bombed on this one.

[Casie]

djbarker, on 19 April 2012 - 03:16 PM, said:

Moisture slow to clear out and relatively cold air aloft...

(shameless self-promotion)

http://columbuswx.wordpress.com

(/shameless self-promotion)

Very informative. Thanks!

[Met1985]

Well the Euro makes another big jump on the 23th with the 850 temp at 0 degree all the way down to Northern Alabama, Georgia, and all of North Carolina and Tennessee are below the 850 0 degree line. I still think that there is a possibility for some high elevation Appalachian snow for Monday sometime. Again as i have said there is still a lot of uncertainty with this low. I will not lock onto anything until tomorrow night but this has turned out to be pretty fun tracking and could be a real drought buster.

[Weatherlover92]

This sorta reminds me of what happened back on Christmas 2007. A storm system around that time was modeled to head towards S. FL/Cuba, but of course the day of Christmas, it hugged along the Gulf and brought in around 2-4 inches of soaking cold rain. (Never got out of the 40s that day and it started off as "thundersleet" that morning)

[SD]

Late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night will be rocking across nc. You may have severe weather along the coast, heavy flooding rains in the piedmont and rain trying to change to snow in the mountains. It will be breezy too a 996 or lower low going just east of i95 means winds 20-30 mph with higher gusts.

[brax]

Tuesday morning we may ALMOST make it down to freezing here in the ATL area.

[djbarker]

I'm having a hard time believing ATL fails to make it to 60F Monday afternoon under late April insolation.

[Weatherlover92]

djbarker, on 20 April 2012 - 12:00 PM, said:

I'm having a hard time believing ATL fails to make it to 60F Monday afternoon under late April insolation.

It's certainly possible, we've only been in the mid to upper 60s most of this week and I think we can add today to that list because I doubt we'll crack 70 with the very thick overcast skies. We've also had days in May where it was in the 60s. Granted, it was either raining or overcast.

[Brent In Atl]

Currently 61 at my house in ATL with very heavy overcast, reminds me of England.

[metallicwx366]

Imagine this storm taking this path in the winter. That would be a nice winter storm for a lot of us on the backside of the storm. I'm referring to the 12z Nam run lol.

Edited by metallicwx366, 20 April 2012 - 03:38 PM.

[Met1985]

Well i have been looking at the models and looks like the Eastern part of North Carolina could get a substantial amount of rain when this low pulls up through the Atlantic and into the Northeast. Looks like the Eastern part of NC could get crushed with very heavy rainfall which will help a lot with the drought down there. As the low bombs out the low is really going to intensify and the winds are going to be blowing and i mean blowing hard. This is were it COULD get interesting for the mountains of North Carolina NE Tennessee, Part of Virginia, and almost all of West Virginia with snow. The farther west this low is the better chance for a snow storm especially in Western North Carolina and NE Tennessee. I thing West Virginia will get it no matter what especially if you live say 3000 feet up or more in elevation. Looks like the timing for the snow may be very early Monday Morning through the day possibly into the evening hours.There is still a lot this system has to do bu it is fixing to get ramped up fast!

[Met1985]

Wow just checked back in and looking at the Euro and the GFS they look a lot more colder and looks like the East is going to get drenched in this one. This low should really take off tonight and just clobber the Coast with lots of rain. and wind. Wow if you are on the Outer Banks watch out it is going to get crazy out there with the heavy rain and wind. Several inches of rain possible along the coast which would be a very welcome sight down there. Also the other aspect of this storm is the wintery kind. Wow as someone else has pointed out Winter Storm Watches out already up in the upper Appalachian Mountains. The Euro and the GFS has trended colder the next 24 to 48 hours were is i am a little more confident that Western North Carolina Mountains and in Eastern Tennessee could see some snowfall and maybe several inches higher up above 3500 feet. Still this thing is going to take off tonight and rapidly develop but very interesting developments to say the least!

[Cyclogent]

No watches issued yet but MRX wording of tree damaging snowfall in their afternoon AFD and a SWS for the Smoky Mtns suggests a prolonged period of heavy/wet snow + wind.  I guess if you are going to be in the Smoky Mtns don't count on electricity or passable roads, due to the strong possibility of fallen trees.  I wonder if MRX will go with a Blizzard Watch/Warning when the time comes to accentuate the danger?

[metallicwx366]

It went crazy here today. Still pouring and thundering. Saw upwards of 3 inches today. Power cut out briefly from a nearby lighting strike. Saw what I think was about a 60mph wind gust earlier when the winds shifted the other direction during the storm. Blackshear, Ga a little northeast of us saw a 60mph gust with quarter sized hail on SPC. Flood advisory just expired.

Edited by metallicwx366, 21 April 2012 - 05:59 PM.

[Met1985]

Cyclogent, on 21 April 2012 - 05:52 PM, said:

No watches issued yet but MRX wording of tree damaging snowfall in their afternoon AFD and a SWS for the Smoky Mtns suggests a prolonged period of heavy/wet snow + wind.  I guess if you are going to be in the Smoky Mtns don't count on electricity or passable roads, due to the strong possibility of fallen trees.  I wonder if MRX will go with a Blizzard Watch/Warning when the time comes to accentuate the danger?

Ya snow with the trees the way they are and you no this is going to be a very heavy heavy snow with winds gusting 50+ is all the ingredients for lots of damage and prolonged power outages. Crazy stuff!

[Met1985]

metallicwx366, on 21 April 2012 - 05:58 PM, said:

It went crazy here today. Still pouring and thundering. Saw upwards of 3 inches today. Power cut out briefly from a nearby lighting strike. Saw what I think was about a 60mph wind gust earlier when the winds shifted the other direction during the storm. Blackshear, Ga a little northeast of us saw a 60mph gust with quarter sized hail on SPC. Flood advisory just expired.

Wow crazy 3 inches and high winds. Man talk about extreme weather this system will have all with it. Flooding, severe weather and heavy wet snow. This is like a storm in January.

[Brent In Atl]

Met1985, on 21 April 2012 - 06:10 PM, said:

Wow crazy 3 inches and high winds. Man talk about extreme weather this system will have all with it. Flooding, severe weather and heavy wet snow. This is like a storm in January.

If only we had this in January.................

[Met1985]

Brent In Atl, on 21 April 2012 - 07:19 PM, said:

If only we had this in January.................

Lol ya this would be an epic snowstorm if this were in January. I think this may be epic for the Great Smoky mountains and for the upper Appalachians.

[metallicwx366]

Nice rainfall for the drought today. Central and South Florida saw little rain this afternoon. They saw most of it this morning which limited the severe threat to basically nothing. It seems like all the rainfall totals just shifted way north today.
NWS JAX said only one third to two thirds of an inch. Storm over performed here today. Look at that 9.1 rainfall total southwest of Albany, GA.

Edited by metallicwx366, 21 April 2012 - 07:53 PM.

[Met1985]

Wow 9 inches that's what i call a drought buster! Ya this system in general is great for most of the East. Lots of rain from the SE all the way up to the NE were they are battling some bad fires up there already.

[Met1985]

The low is really starting to flex it's muscle. It is starting to pull in Gulf and Atlantic moisture which should really start to increase the coverage of rain and really help with deepening the low itself. Things should start to get interesting tonight.

[Brent In Atl]

Storms are firing up in SE Atlanta metro.

[Met1985]

Brent In Atl, on 21 April 2012 - 08:14 PM, said:

Storms are firing up in SE Atlanta metro.

Ya i have noticed that. I think most of Georgia parts of SC and NC have a chance at some pretty big time severe weather tonight and tomorrow. There is going to be some concern about flash flooding also i think.

[Weatherlover92]

Looking at the SE radar, you would think a tropical storm was spiraling inland into GA/FL Panhandle.

[Tyler Penland]

Met1985, on 21 April 2012 - 08:21 PM, said:

Ya i have noticed that. I think most of Georgia parts of SC and NC have a chance at some pretty big time severe weather tonight and tomorrow. There is going to be some concern about flash flooding also i think.

WxSouth (aka Foothills) posted something about severe across GA/NC/SC. Here's what he posted on FB.

Quote

GFS inches west, looks more dynamic and in synch with whats happening. Apps get plastered with heavy windblown snow starting Sunday night and Monday...clear down to Boone, NC. Concerned about severe in northern and eastern GA to western Carolinas Sunday afternoon as strong 5h vort cuts off and extreme divergence occurs in just the worst possible spot (or best if you like severe).

[ZackH]

I just don't see any kind of upstate or N/NE GA severe threats unless I am missing something... with the exception of some gusty winds.  Dewpoints should be in the low to mid 40s with hardly any instability.  Sure, the upper level support is pretty substantial... but its useless with that kind of instability.  Not to mention, the low will already be well downstream.

[brax]

Weatherlover92, on 21 April 2012 - 08:58 PM, said:

Looking at the SE radar, you would think a tropical storm was spiraling inland into GA/FL Panhandle.

I was JUST thinking the same thing!

[Thunder91]

Tyler Penland, on 21 April 2012 - 09:21 PM, said:

WxSouth (aka Foothills) posted something about severe across GA/NC/SC. Here's what he posted on FB.

I don't see how there's going to be severe weather on Sunday afternoon considering the forecast is for Sunny skies in North AL/North GA.

[Taylor Campbell]

ZackH, on 21 April 2012 - 11:28 PM, said:

I just don't see any kind of upstate or N/NE GA severe threats unless I am missing something... with the exception of some gusty winds.  Dewpoints should be in the low to mid 40s with hardly any instability.  Sure, the upper level support is pretty substantial... but its useless with that kind of instability.  Not to mention, the low will already be well downstream.

I imagine if there is any severe weather threat west of the low tomorrow that the occurrence will be much like the one earlier today in Minessota and Iowa. A jet maxima is currently located in the southeast South Dokato and northeast Iowa corner and should continue to pivot south/southeasterly until the energy rounds the base of the trough. A steep lapse rate tomorrow will bring the instability if any under the environmental conditions. As for the threat area I do not see this being GA, or the upstate, but instead more like boot heal of MO, northeast AR, western KY, western/middle TN into perhaps northern MS and AL. The sim reflectivites and models are all in good indications of rejuvenation of convection occurring in correlation with this maxima and day time heating and quickly dying off near evening and night hours. I am not expecting a swarm of tornadoes like in MN, and Iowa, but at least the potential for a brief tornado/funnel, damaging wind, and hail type of event occurring in accordance with the same disturbance responsible for those reports.

Edited by Taylor Campbell, 22 April 2012 - 01:51 AM.

[metallicwx366]

Still raining outside! 4+ inches of rain here.