81 replies to this topic

[Met1985]

Well the models look interesting for next weekend in several different ways. First is we could be dealing with a severe weather event next weekend for the SE. Things look ripe with the two air masses colliding along a cold front but i will leave that discussion up to the severe weather gurus here. It is always a pleasure reading there analysis. Secend is the big shot of cold air that we may get with this cold front. Both the Euro and the GFS are advertising this for the end of the weekend, particularly the 22nd and the 23rd. There looks like the same places that just experienced a frost/freeze could endure another cold spell similar to what we just had. Really to early to tell just how cold yet and also the GFS is showing snow breaking out across the mountains of North Carolina Sunday morning. The teleconnections would go right along with this also during this time frame. The NAO looks to go negative during that time frame and also the AO looks to be going negative at the same time which could really send the East into a cold/cool spell. Also the PNA seems to be going positive in that time fram also so that would help to buckle the jet stream and have a ridge in the West and a trough in the East. Also the MJO looks like it be crossing the CAD and coming back into phase 8 which would be indicative of a cool spell in the East but i think the key will be the AO and the NAO if they both go negative at the same time.

[Met1985]

The 12Z Euro is much colder than the GFS and the earlier Euro model.It has the 0 C 850 mb line all the way down to S AL and S GA on 4/24! This would be an in and out cold snap but wow what would be a very deep drop across the East for this time of the year. This week will be very interesting to see this plays out and to see if this intense cold look persists.

[Met1985]

Well the 00Z Euro looks very interesting. Looks like a closed low forms at the bottom of the trough and just sits and spins over the Appalachians. That would be very very interesting because the 850 temps are at 0 or below under were the low is and all i can think of at this point is a raging snow storm for late April. It has happened in the mountains. A couple years ago we had several inches of snow i think at the end of April. Well needless to say things look very interesting heading into the weekend and the first of next week. The NAO and AO still look to be heading negative which i think is the key to weather we will see any cold air or not.

Edited by Met1985, 16 April 2012 - 03:39 AM.

[Weatherlover92]

12z GFS better be screwin' us around here.   

[Tyler Penland]

Weatherlover92, on 16 April 2012 - 12:46 PM, said:

12z GFS better be screwin' us around here.   

Bahahahahaha.
That would be our luck. Euro gets it pretty dang cold next week.


Eh, can't hotlink instant. I forgot lol. I'll fix that when I get home and get my laptop connected to a power outlet. Nothing like heading off to school for the day and leaving your laptop cable at home.

Edited by Tyler Penland, 16 April 2012 - 03:38 PM.

[Met1985]

Ya this has been very interesting to say the least. I think it was several years ago. Maybe 6 to 8 years when we had a snow had the end of April. We had rain turning to heavy wet snow, thundersnow if i remember right. Had a couple quick inches and wow everybody was caught off guard. Mt Pisgah had like 20 some inches. The inns workers got stranded up there because they had to close the parkway. Still early but the Euro has been showing this for a day or two and it is not out in fantasy land. The 850 are dang cold to and that trough would just be amazing this time of the year. The Teleconnections still seem to be going toward this being a favorable event with both the NAO and AO going negative and that is unheard of this year.

[weatherman566]

Well, I think we can throw 18z GFS out of the window. It went the polar opposite of the recent runs.

[SD]

This may ruin my weekend at the pool.    have a hard time actually believing what I'm seeing right now on the euro and gfs. Still want to lean toward a more progressive look but if the models verify you are looking at how the higher elevations get big snows in April and may while the lower elevations sit in the doldrums of 40s and rain. We shall see.

[Met1985]

SD, on 16 April 2012 - 10:12 PM, said:

This may ruin my weekend at the pool.    have a hard time actually believing what I'm seeing right now on the euro and gfs. Still want to lean toward a more progressive look but if the models verify you are looking at how the higher elevations get big snows in April and may while the lower elevations sit in the doldrums of 40s and rain. We shall see.

Ya this would be something to see if this were to verify. The models may not really get a handle on this until the weekend really. Looks like the GFS is going from one end to the other and the Euro is holding to one solution but really who the heck nows. I am looking into what the AO and the NAO do right around that time frame.

[Mike Puckett]

Twc says Rain/Snow Monday....my god what a weird year

[Met1985]

Mike Puckett, on 17 April 2012 - 12:39 AM, said:

Twc says Rain/Snow Monday....my god what a weird year

Yep you have that right. Very weird and i think it will continue throught the year.

[weatherman566]

Met1985, on 17 April 2012 - 12:45 AM, said:

Yep you have that right. Very weird and i think it will continue throught the year.

Anyone look out in the Atlantic?  Could have a subtropical storm forming....

[Met1985]

weatherman566, on 17 April 2012 - 01:14 AM, said:

Anyone look out in the Atlantic?  Could have a subtropical storm forming....

Lol ya i think SD had mentioned something on the tropical side about this. Crazy stuff just crazy!

[Met1985]

Euro heading the way of the GFS. Stays to low and does not pull in any cold air at all. Might be too much blocking for the low to steer north. Still to early to right anything off but maybe lots of rain for people who need it.

[metallicwx366]

weatherman566, on 17 April 2012 - 01:14 AM, said:

Anyone look out in the Atlantic?  Could have a subtropical storm forming....

Thats Invest 91L

[Met1985]

Well talk about wild swings! Both the GFS and the Euro has the low more north especially the Euro which puts the high terrain of the Appalachian mountains in danger per se of seeing some snow and maybe a lot of it. Still very early and as has been the case we have been going back and fourth on this for the last 5 days or so. The NAO and the AO still looks to go negative. The AO really may take a short plunge during this time frame. Again just one model run but just show the volatility of the models right now. I really do not think we will have a clear grasp on this untill Friday maybe Friday night just because of the cutoff low and the way the jet may behave.

[Tyler Penland]

Euro Monday night. Man I wish this was January (one like Jan 2011)

Edited by Tyler Penland, 18 April 2012 - 09:54 AM.

[Met1985]

Ya Tyler if this were to verify this would go along with the crazy weather we have been experiencing the past several month. Still a long ways to go but it is something the Euro jumped back to this solution.

[SD]

Haven't seen todays euro but saw the gfs cmc and they aren't as conducive for elevation snow in the se..gotta have the phaseand  close off occur well south to get wintry weather and the excessive rainfall being talked about really

[Met1985]

Again this thing has gone the complete opposite way further south then looks like the low reforms in the Northeast. Also looks like it has cut the amount of rain down a lot for the Southeast right now. The latest models almost have the low tracking almost in the gulf. The latest run of NAO and AO have backed off a lot for going negative. There may be a brief time they both go negative then that's it. Should have known not to believe it since this whole flipping winter they have barely been neutral. Also this is just one run again this thing is behaving wildly on the models and even right now i rally will not believe what they are spitting out until Friday.

[storm5]

yep looking much much drier around my area this weekend. I was actually looking forward to a healthy rain

Edited by storm5, 19 April 2012 - 07:25 AM.

[Brent In Atl]

storm5, on 19 April 2012 - 07:24 AM, said:

yep looking much much drier around my area this weekend. I was actually looking forward to a healthy rain

Yes, so was I.  I knew it would not pan out.

[djbarker]

Brent In Atl, on 19 April 2012 - 08:03 AM, said:

Yes, so was I.  I knew it would not pan out.

NCEP could use your expertise to tweak their computer model algorithms if you knew all along it wasn't going to pan out.

[Tyler Penland]

Frankly, with the model jumping we've seen the past couple days, it could be back to a big rain event by tonight. It was just yesterday morning the Euro was showing a ton of rain and higher elevation snow. I personally haven't seen enough consistency to completely call it off yet.

[Brent In Atl]

djbarker, on 19 April 2012 - 10:49 AM, said:

NCEP could use your expertise to tweak their computer model algorithms if you knew all along it wasn't going to pan out.

Why are you so sarcastic to me?

[Casie]

I'm wondering what's causing the slow clearing today? Updated FD from BMX says clearing by 12:00 or 1:00 and I'm still under heavy overcast in Irondale. Also it is cool! Not sure if we'll make the upper 70's.

[Brent In Atl]

Casie, on 19 April 2012 - 01:12 PM, said:

I'm wondering what's causing the slow clearing today? Updated FD from BMX says clearing by 12:00 or 1:00 and I'm still under heavy overcast in Irondale. Also it is cool! Not sure if we'll make the upper 70's.

63 at my house in Atlanta very gloomy.

[gawxnative]

Gloomy here too, with 64. The DIRECT TV Blimp flew over about 15 mins ago pretty low to stay out of overcast.

[djbarker]

Casie, on 19 April 2012 - 01:12 PM, said:

I'm wondering what's causing the slow clearing today? Updated FD from BMX says clearing by 12:00 or 1:00 and I'm still under heavy overcast in Irondale. Also it is cool! Not sure if we'll make the upper 70's.

Moisture slow to clear out and relatively cold air aloft...

(shameless self-promotion)

http://columbuswx.wordpress.com

(/shameless self-promotion)

[metallicwx366]

Brent In Atl, on 19 April 2012 - 12:20 PM, said:

Why are you so sarcastic to me?

Lolz..
This weather this weekend is not anything interesting anymore. Severe threat is only a 5% across Florida. The rainfall totals have been cut here.