197 replies to this topic

[David in SW Blount]

BlountWolf, on 06 March 2012 - 03:49 PM, said:

It would be like any other country having them, unless they used them. If they did, we'd turn them and a lot of their sand to glass. They know this. There's a lot of folks who think they are crazy enough to use one, I'm not so sure - crazy theocrats yes, suicidally crazy no, IMO. Religious leaders like this tend to talk a lot of apocalyptic nonsense but mostly protect their own skins.

I agree.  Like all leaders in control, they want to stay in power.  They can't stay in power if they're dead.  They've seen what's happened to Saddam, Osama, and Muammar. The problem for Israel is that one decent nuke could ruin their nation.  They may prefer the consequences of acting now to risking even one single nuclear bomb being detonated on their soil.

[Stormlover]

David in SW Blount, on 06 March 2012 - 08:55 PM, said:

I agree.  Like all leaders in control, they want to stay in power.  They can't stay in power if they're dead.  They've seen what's happened to Saddam, Osama, and Muammar. The problem for Israel is that one decent nuke could ruin their nation.  They may prefer the consequences of acting now to risking even one single nuclear bomb being detonated on their soil.

Again, if you don't understand how they see their prophesies according to the way the Shiite's believe, you'll never get it. As long as people just act like they are rational people that think like we think, you'll never get it. Do some research about the 12th Iman and how they want to cause world events to set the stage for his return. Until people understand this, they'll never understand what is going on. I'm constantly amazed at how people that keep up with this stuff don't spend a little time to understand this, and it seems that world leaders and intelligence ignores it also.

http://www.allaboutp...g/12th-imam.htm

Quote

the 12th Imam theory plays heavily into the world’s current concerns with Iran. The Shiite Muslim President of Iran, Ahmadinejad, is deeply committed to the Islamic Messiah, al Mahdi. There have been many through the years claiming to be the Hidden Imam but Ahmadinejad believes he is yet to come. He claims that he is to personally prepare the world for the coming Mahdi. In order to save the world, it must be in a state of chaos and subjugation. Ahmadinejad claims he was “directed by Allah to pave the way for the glorious appearance of the Mahdi”. This apocalyptic directive includes some very scary proclamations.

While Christians look for Jesus’ 2nd coming, the Jews await the Messiah and Muslims await the 12th Imam. However, of the three, Allah’s designated Mahdi is the only one who demands a violent path to conquer the world.

]

Edited by Stormlover, 06 March 2012 - 09:29 PM.

[3340skywatcher]

Stormlover, on 06 March 2012 - 09:03 PM, said:

Again, if you don't understand how they see their prophesies according to the way the Shiite's believe, you'll never get it. As long as people just act like they are rational people that think like we think, you'll never get it. Do some research about the 12th Iman and how they want to cause world events to set the stage for his return. Until people understand this, they'll never understand what is going on. I'm constantly amazed at how people that keep up with this stuff don't spend a little time to understand this, and it seems that world leaders and intelligence ignores it also.

http://www.allaboutp...g/12th-imam.htm

]

Basically in Iran's mind it will not matter what the consequences would be because in there sick and twisted believe system bringing about world chaos will not harm them at all and this "messiah" will keep them from losing power. This is a totally different animal from the other countries with nukes that use them as bargaining chips. A nation with leaders looking to fulfill a prophecy through world chaos getting nukes is not a good combination.

[3340skywatcher]

Did anybody really think Iran would be willing to have inspectors come to a top secret plant without doing some "clean-up" first...... I thought this might happen.....
Atomic agency believes Iran is scrambling to make evidence vanish....


China and Russia refuse to sign on to any resolution condemning Iran and take part in any sanctions.....

Edited by 3340skywatcher, 07 March 2012 - 10:29 PM.

[acral]

The biggest threat of open conflict remains Israel and our own speculations.  Iran would attempt to close the Strait of Hormez and quite possibly would try to hit Saudi Arabia's oil fields.  The US Navy would keep the strait open, or re-open the strait, Saudi Arabia would not just sit there and nod saying "Look at the pretty lights".  Israel DOES have an handle and the results would be brutal.  Iran has one real ally, Syria.  The Persians are not embraced in Pan Arabia, thus the extremes Iran can cause would be curtailed on fairly short order.

[Matt]

BlountWolf, on 06 March 2012 - 03:13 PM, said:

Like you, I worry about asymmetrical warfare tactics like terrorism. But that's not nearly all that could seriously affect us if Iran pulls out the stops.

Think about the Saudi oil infrastructure. Yes, Iranian missiles have enough range. Think about our troops next door in Afghanistan. Iranians know how to make (and supply) the EFP bombs that can penetrate our armored vehicles.

Iran has so much more capability militarily than Iraq did as well - the mobile peek and fire launchers and bunker network they have along the strait with chinese made sunburns in them scare the crap out of me for our fleet, and should for anybody that knows anything about missile tech. We used to park our fleet in the straits of Taiwan as a warning to the chinese about Taiwan - we don't do that any more, and sunburn anti-ship missiles are the reason.

It's going to be a damn mess if we go to war - and they won't even have to hit us here to cause us a lot of pain. Imagine they hit the Saudi oil ports, and we end up with $10/gallon gas and not enough of even that to go around. No need to close the strait - just send a couple of missiles to the ports that load the ships. A very real possibility - within easy range, with no real countermeasures. That happens, our society grinds to a halt, without a shot fired on US soil.

Will we win? Without a doubt - we'll bomb them flat. But the cost is going to be high.

You make the perfect argument on why we need to drill more oil in our country. Congrats !

[Matt]

BlountWolf, on 06 March 2012 - 03:13 PM, said:

Like you, I worry about asymmetrical warfare tactics like terrorism. But that's not nearly all that could seriously affect us if Iran pulls out the stops.

Think about the Saudi oil infrastructure. Yes, Iranian missiles have enough range. Think about our troops next door in Afghanistan. Iranians know how to make (and supply) the EFP bombs that can penetrate our armored vehicles.

Iran has so much more capability militarily than Iraq did as well - the mobile peek and fire launchers and bunker network they have along the strait with chinese made sunburns in them scare the crap out of me for our fleet, and should for anybody that knows anything about missile tech. We used to park our fleet in the straits of Taiwan as a warning to the chinese about Taiwan - we don't do that any more, and sunburn anti-ship missiles are the reason.

It's going to be a damn mess if we go to war - and they won't even have to hit us here to cause us a lot of pain. Imagine they hit the Saudi oil ports, and we end up with $10/gallon gas and not enough of even that to go around. No need to close the strait - just send a couple of missiles to the ports that load the ships. A very real possibility - within easy range, with no real countermeasures. That happens, our society grinds to a halt, without a shot fired on US soil.

Will we win? Without a doubt - we'll bomb them flat. But the cost is going to be high.

I am not sure, but did you not make the same argument concerning Iraq's military prowress ? I agree Iran is probably more powerful than Iraq but I am not concerned that if we had to we could neutralize them pretty quickly.

[BlountWolf]

Matt, on 08 March 2012 - 06:49 PM, said:

I am not sure, but did you not make the same argument concerning Iraq's military prowress ? I agree Iran is probably more powerful than Iraq but I am not concerned that if we had to we could neutralize them pretty quickly.

No, I didn't. Iran is not Iraq.  

[Blizzard1]

BlountWolf, on 06 March 2012 - 03:49 PM, said:

It would be like any other country having them, unless they used them. If they did, we'd turn them and a lot of their sand to glass. They know this. There's a lot of folks who think they are crazy enough to use one, I'm not so sure - crazy theocrats yes, suicidally crazy no, IMO. Religious leaders like this tend to talk a lot of apocalyptic nonsense but mostly protect their own skins.

Really? Ever heard of Herff Applewhite, David Koresh, Jim Jones?

[BlountWolf]

Blizzard1, on 09 March 2012 - 01:33 PM, said:

Really? Ever heard of Herff Applewhite, David Koresh, Jim Jones?

Really.

[Blizzard1]

BlountWolf, on 09 March 2012 - 01:36 PM, said:

Really.

So your contention is that apocalyptic religious zealot leaders aren't generally suicidal? Yeah. So tell me Blount, what is the Easter Bunny going to bring you this year?    

Edited by Blizzard1, 09 March 2012 - 01:52 PM.

[BlountWolf]

Blizzard1, on 09 March 2012 - 01:46 PM, said:

So your contention is that apocalyptic religious zealot leaders aren't generally suicidal? Yeah. So tell me Blount, what is the Easter Bunny going to bring you this year?    

Chocolate.

[Ghost]

Blizzard1, on 09 March 2012 - 01:46 PM, said:

So your contention is that apocalyptic religious zealot leaders aren't generally suicidal? Yeah. So tell me Blount, what is the Easter Bunny going to bring you this year?    

I think only in the respect to I believe that's what they expect and have instilled in their underlings and subordinates.  When it comes to themselves, I've yet to see that manifested.

[Stormlover]

Ghost, on 09 March 2012 - 02:10 PM, said:

I think only in the respect to I believe that's what they expect and have instilled in their underlings and subordinates.  When it comes to themselves, I've yet to see that manifested.

Then you don't understand how the shiite Muslims believe and what they want to do to bring on world chaos. I have already posted that in this thread. Ignore if if you want, but as long as anyone doesn't understand where they are coming from, you won't understand the situation.
Are they crazy? Yes. But crazy in a completely different way than in a secular crazy country like North Korea. If we don't realize this is what they believe, then we end up the crazy ones.

Edited by Stormlover, 09 March 2012 - 02:21 PM.

[Stormlover]

Blizzard1, on 09 March 2012 - 01:33 PM, said:

Really? Ever heard of Herff Applewhite, David Koresh, Jim Jones?

It's amazing how many refuse to understand their beliefs and what they want to happen. I'll post a little info again so they can catch up
http://www.allaboutp...g/12th-imam.htm

[Matt]

BlountWolf, on 09 March 2012 - 12:57 PM, said:

No, I didn't. Iran is not Iraq.  

No need to roll your eyes BW. I just remember some on the left telling us how powerful Iraq was and how we would have massive casualties. If it was not you I stand corrected.

[Ghost]

Stormlover, on 09 March 2012 - 02:13 PM, said:

Then you don't understand how the shiite Muslims believe and what they want to do to bring on world chaos. I have already posted that in this thread. Ignore if if you want, but as long as anyone doesn't understand where they are coming from, you won't understand the situation.
Are they crazy? Yes. But crazy in a completely different way than in a secular crazy country like North Korea. If we don't realize this is what they believe, then we end up the crazy ones.

Until I see where a high ranking political crape leader or cleric has strapped a hundred pounds of C4 to themselves and pushed the button, I will still say most of them are cowards and only manipulate their subordinates and underlings through intimidation... power... or more likely the stirring up of charismatic frenzy of their religious fervor to drive them (the subordinates) to be suicidal.

[Blizzard1]

BlountWolf, on 09 March 2012 - 02:06 PM, said:

Chocolate.

Sounds good! How about Santa? The Tooth Fairy? On second thought, before I get too sarcastic we do have a real Ghost on the forum...

[Ghost]

Ghost, on 09 March 2012 - 02:45 PM, said:

Until I see where a high ranking political crape leader or cleric has strapped a hundred pounds of C4 to themselves and pushed the button, I will still say most of them are cowards and only manipulate their subordinates and underlings through intimidation... power... or more likely the stirring up of charismatic frenzy of their religious fervor to drive them (the subordinates) to be suicidal.

In my above post.. the way I spelled the muslim sect that starts with sh was converted to the word... "crape" by the TW forum word corrector I guess...  

[Blizzard1]

Stormlover, on 09 March 2012 - 02:15 PM, said:

It's amazing how many refuse to understand their beliefs and what they want to happen. I'll post a little info again so they can catch up
http://www.allaboutp...g/12th-imam.htm

Seriously, the religious zealots simply don't care about their hides when it comes to something of such grandiosity. When it comes to ushering in the 12th Iman, you know somebody in power over there wants their name(s)revered in the future for making that happen! Someone might retort, "Well you can't prove it will happen" yada...my reply to that is "You REALLY want to gamble on the potential consequences of Iran with nukes?"

Edited by Blizzard1, 09 March 2012 - 02:52 PM.

[Blizzard1]

Ghost, on 09 March 2012 - 02:46 PM, said:

In my above post.. the way I spelled the muslim sect that starts with sh was converted to the word... "crape" by the TW forum word corrector I guess...  

Ghost, your post was a bunch of "crape" anyway!  

[BlountWolf]

Matt, on 09 March 2012 - 02:33 PM, said:

No need to roll your eyes BW. I just remember some on the left telling us how powerful Iraq was and how we would have massive casualties. If it was not you I stand corrected.

Nah, I knew enough about Iraq's tech vs ours that I wasn't one of those. I was calling for more boots on the ground for security, but there was little doubt we'd stomp Iraq's military. I think most of us remember "Baghdad Bob".

[Stormlover]

Ghost, on 09 March 2012 - 02:45 PM, said:

Until I see where a high ranking political crape leader or cleric has strapped a hundred pounds of C4 to themselves and pushed the button, I will still say most of them are cowards and only manipulate their subordinates and underlings through intimidation... power... or more likely the stirring up of charismatic frenzy of their religious fervor to drive them (the subordinates) to be suicidal.

You can say it from now till doomsday, but it doesn't change facts. The facts of how they believe and the things they want to make happen. Of course they won't blow themselves up to kill a few people, they have much bigger plans for themselves to direct. Because they will let others do the suicide bombings has nothing to do with what they believe as leaders they should do and to cause to happen.

[Blizzard1]

Stormlover, on 09 March 2012 - 03:05 PM, said:

You can say it from now till doomsday, but it doesn't change facts. The facts of how they believe and the things they want to make happen. Of course they won't blow themselves up to kill a few people, they have much bigger plans for themselves to direct. Because they will let others do the suicide bombings has nothing to do with what they believe as leaders they should do and to cause to happen.

Exactly! To set in motion the glorious return of the Iman, to me it's very hard to imagine that the hard core Muslims leaders in Iran wouldn't jump on the opportunity to make it happen and have their names exalted in history.

[3340skywatcher]

Blizzard1, on 09 March 2012 - 03:12 PM, said:

Exactly! To set in motion the glorious return of the Iman, to me it's very hard to imagine that the hard core Muslims leaders in Iran wouldn't jump on the opportunity to make it happen and have their names exalted in history.

Exactly why I cant say enough that sanctions and diplomacy will not work this is not north korea. Iran will not use nukes as bargaining chips. They openly admit they want to destroy Isreal. The only reason they dont believe in the holocaust is because they didnt carry it out these people are nuts. If someone says they want to kill me im not going to let them get a gun.

Edited by 3340skywatcher, 09 March 2012 - 04:47 PM.

[Matt]

BlountWolf, on 09 March 2012 - 02:56 PM, said:

Nah, I knew enough about Iraq's tech vs ours that I wasn't one of those. I was calling for more boots on the ground for security, but there was little doubt we'd stomp Iraq's military. I think most of us remember "Baghdad Bob".

While Iran may be more of a military power than Iraq, still their defense budget is one of the lowest in the Middle East. While they have some impressive systems, I honestly believe those could be defeated from the air. Them closing the Straight of Hormuz is something to be concerned with. I think you keep it open with air assets and submarines and not surface ships. They just don't put the fear of God into me.

[BlountWolf]

Matt, on 09 March 2012 - 05:16 PM, said:

While Iran may be more of a military power than Iraq, still their defense budget is one of the lowest in the Middle East. While they have some impressive systems, I honestly believe those could be defeated from the air. Them closing the Straight of Hormuz is something to be concerned with. I think you keep it open with air assets and submarines and not surface ships. They just don't put the fear of God into me.

Oh me either - we'll win, handily. The problem is that we're more vulnerable to what they have than we were to what Iraq had (BEFORE we take it out), mostly because of what we know they've purchased from the Chinese and Russians. We know their missile tech, in particular, isn't going to be like dealing with SCUDS. And an Iraq style occupation BETTER be off the table. That would be a quagmire.

Edited by BlountWolf, 09 March 2012 - 05:50 PM.

[NorthGaWeather]

Stormlover, on 09 March 2012 - 02:15 PM, said:

It's amazing how many refuse to understand their beliefs and what they want to happen. I'll post a little info again so they can catch up
http://www.allaboutp...g/12th-imam.htm

Ahmadinejad wouldn't have the power to order a nuclear attack.  And I don't see Khamenei ordering an attack anytime soon.  

Ahmadinejad's term will be up in mid 2013.  Also, Ahmadinejad supporters suffered significant loses in parliament last week.  Khamenei loyalist won nearly 75% of the open seats.  The little power/influence he had has vanished.

[Stormlover]

NorthGaWeather, on 09 March 2012 - 09:11 PM, said:

Ahmadinejad wouldn't have the power to order a nuclear attack.  And I don't see Khamenei ordering an attack anytime soon.  

Ahmadinejad's term will be up in mid 2013.  Also, Ahmadinejad supporters suffered significant loses in parliament last week.  Khamenei loyalist won nearly 75% of the open seats.  The little power/influence he had has vanished.

Khamenei, or however you spell it, would, of course, have the final word on it. Thing is, he believes in the inihilation of Israel also, and the same Shiite prophesies.

Edited by Stormlover, 09 March 2012 - 09:22 PM.

[NorthGaWeather]

Stormlover, on 09 March 2012 - 09:22 PM, said:

Khamenei, or however you spell it, would, of course, have the final word on it. Thing is, he believes in the inihilation of Israel also, and the same Shiite prophesies.

I'm aware of the ignorant things he has said.  However, Khamenei isn't crazy, and he is very comfortable with his lifestyle.  He's not going to commit suicide IMO.  You think he will.  We'll see what happens...