3141 replies to this topic

[TimHSV]

After looking at the ECMWF/GFS/NAM/SREF, this was a strong potential for a Major Tornado Outbreak over several states including AR/MO/TN/MS/AL. We will have several days of a strong, southerly fetch off the GOM,with a powerhouse 500mb trough approaching from the west currently depicted on the models and a high octane boundary layer, very favorable jet structure's at 850mb/500mb/300mb, with long and curved hodographs, with high SRH values over 500 m2/s2 on some forecast soundings. These cells will be possibly discrete in nature due to boundary interactions from left over convection, warm frontal boundary interaction,especially AR/W.TN/N.MS/ Tuesday and Wednesday as is prog currently.

The long-track, violent tornadic potential is there. A classic severe weather synoptic setup based looking at some historical charts in comparision IMO.



Just one example from Little Rock on Tue. evening..


Date: 90 hour GFS valid 0Z WED 27 APR 11
Station: Klit
Latitude:   34.73
Longitude: -92.23
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  0 1000   -30                                                                
SFC  986    96  24.7  21.9  84  2.9  22.7 174  10 299.1 302.2 296.4 348.8 17.01
  2  950   418  24.5  19.1  72  5.5  20.7 186  32 302.1 304.8 295.7 345.7 14.79
  3  850  1384  17.4  14.7  84  2.7  15.6 204  50 304.4 306.7 294.7 341.6 12.49
  4  800  1900  14.7  10.1  74  4.6  11.8 215  50 306.8 308.7 293.4 336.3  9.77
  5  750  2445  12.4  -0.6  41 13.0   5.5 225  48 310.0 310.9 290.3 325.3  4.89
  6  700  3018   7.8  -5.8  38 13.5   1.4 225  50 311.1 311.7 289.5 322.3  3.55
  7  650  3623   2.4  -7.0  50  9.4  -1.8 231  52 311.7 312.4 289.6 322.8  3.49
  8  600  4264  -2.4  -9.3  59  6.9  -5.3 240  53 313.3 314.0 289.8 323.5  3.15
  9  550  4948  -7.5 -12.3  69  4.8  -9.3 244  52 315.2 315.7 290.0 324.0  2.71
10  500  5683 -12.6 -15.5  79  2.9 -13.6 243  53 317.6 318.1 290.3 325.2  2.28
11  450  6479 -18.0 -20.2  83  2.2 -18.7 243  57 320.6 320.9 290.7 326.4  1.71
12  400  7349 -24.2 -25.7  88  1.5 -24.5 244  63 323.5 323.8 291.0 327.7  1.18
13  300  9383 -38.7 -39.1  96  0.4 -38.7 256  85 330.8 330.9 292.4 332.4  0.43
14  250 10612 -46.8 -47.0  98  0.2 -46.9 255  92 336.4 336.5 293.6 337.3  0.22
15  200 12062 -55.4 -55.8  95  0.4 -55.4 258  96 345.1 345.1 295.6 345.5  0.10
16  150 13848 -66.5 -67.5  87  1.0 -66.5 254  67 355.5 355.5 297.8 355.6  0.03
TRP                                             0                              
WND                                             0                              
P: 985.7 H:     96 T:   24.7 Td:   21.9 Dir:   174 Spd:    10

Sounding variables and indices
1000-500 mb thick:      5713.47 m
Freezing level:          624.90 mb =  3944.80 m = 12942.09 ft
Wetbulb zero:            678.39 mb =  3274.06 m = 10741.53 ft
Precipitable water:        1.56 inches
Sfc-500 mean rel hum:     63.27 %
Est. max temperature:     30.66 C =   87.19 F
Sfc-Lift cond lev (LCL): 945.71 mb =   457.55 m =  1501.13 ft T:   24.25 C
700-500 lapse rate:        7.65 C/km
ThetaE index:             26.45 C Layer  950.0- 650.0 mb
Conv cond level (CCL):   844.53 mb =  1439.04 m =  4721.19 ft
  Mean mixing ratio:      14.68 g/kg
  Conv temperature:       30.23 C =   86.42 F
Cap Strength:              1.64 C
Lifted Index:             -8.02 C Risk: Severe thunderstorms probable
Lifted Index @300 mb:     -7.79 C
Lifted Index @700 mb:     -1.55 C
Showalter Index:          -6.50 C Risk: Severe thunderstorms probable
Total Totals Index:       57.40 C Risk: Severe Thunderstorms probable
  Vertical Totals Index:  30.04 C
  Cross Totals Index:     27.36 C
K Index:                  31.24   Risk: 60-80 % chance of thunderstorms
Sweat Index:             602.91  
Risk: Severe Thunderstorms possible
Energy Index:             -3.31   Risk: Severe Thunderstorms probable

Parcel Indices
Parcel: using surface
CAPE (B+):              2910.50 J/kg
Max Up Vert Vel:          76.30 m/s
Conv Inhibition (B-):     65.14 J/kg
Cap Strength:              3.00 C
Lift Cond Lev (LCL):     945.71 mb =   457.55 m =  1501.13 ft
Lev Free Conv (LFC):     840.71 mb =  1477.69 m =  4847.99 ft
Equ Level (EL):          180.71 mb = 12692.05 m = 41640.06 ft
B at Equ Level:         2906.78 J/kg

Wind level data
   Storm motion: 257 at  36 knt
----------------------------------------------------------
                   TRUE/GROUND REL   |     STORM REL
LEV   P    H    DIR SPD   U     V   | DIR SPD   U     V
       mb   m        knt     m/s     |     knt     m/s
----------------------------------------------------------
  0  1000   -30                    
  1   986    96  174  10  -1.1  10.0 |  93  37 -36.5   1.8
  2   950   418  186  32   3.4  31.6 | 126  40 -32.0  23.4
  3   850  1384  204  50  20.4  45.9 | 158  41 -14.9  37.7
  4   800  1900  215  50  28.6  40.5 | 168  33  -6.7  32.2
  5   750  2445  225  48  34.2  34.0 | 177  26  -1.2  25.8
  6   700  3018  225  50  35.3  35.4 | 180  27   0.0  27.2
  7   650  3623  231  52  40.7  33.0 | 192  25   5.3  24.8
  8   600  4264  240  53  46.4  26.5 | 211  21  11.1  18.3
  9   550  4948  244  52  46.6  23.0 | 217  19  11.2  14.8
10   500  5683  243  53  47.5  23.7 | 218  20  12.2  15.5
11   450  6479  243  57  51.0  26.3 | 221  24  15.7  18.1
12   400  7349  244  63  56.0  27.8 | 227  28  20.7  19.6
13   300  9383  256  85  82.4  21.2 | 255  49  47.1  12.9
14   250 10612  255  92  89.4  23.2 | 254  56  54.0  15.0
15   200 12062  258  96  94.4  19.6 | 259  60  59.1  11.4
16   150 13848  254  67  64.0  18.8 | 250  31  28.6  10.6

Wind Parameters
Mean winds (0-6000m):            226.9 at   48.4 knts
Storm direction:                 256.9 at   36.3 knts
Shear (0-3000m)              pos:    7.7 neg:    0.0 tot:    7.7 10-3/s
Storm rel Dir Shear (0-3000m):      88.6 deg
Storm rel helicity (0-3000m) pos:  567.4 neg:    0.0 tot:  567.4 m^2/s^2
                             ave:  189.1 10^-3 m/s^2 rel:   0.88
Storm rel vorticity (0-3000m) horiz:   11.2 stream:    9.8 10^-3/s

Energy-Hel index:         9.67 *********
Bulk Rich Number:         19.10
Bulk Shear:              152.41 m/s

Edited by TimHSV, 23 April 2011 - 05:38 AM.

[tennessee storm chaser]

this mornings afd from meg... is rather bullish... saying long track tornadoes are possible late tue. into early wed.

[RollTide18]

BMX is not using real strong wording. Im wondering could this be a combination of super tuesday and the 4/15 tornado outbreak.

[David in SW Blount]

I'm tired of severe weather outbreaks.  Enough is enough!

[RollTide18]

David in SW Blount, on 23 April 2011 - 08:02 AM, said:

I'm tired of severe weather outbreaks.  Enough is enough!

"I have had it with these mf severe weather outbreaks in this mf south" snakes on a plane

[DestinNative]

I'm with you David....Fridays storms were enough!!  Lightning struck my car and insurance totaled it =(  Hate to see what the next round brings! =/

[trency911]

Latest BMX HWO: 3 for tor/svr on Wed.

Quote

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

MINOR RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST ALONG SECTIONS OF THE TOMBIGBEE
RIVER THROUGH SUNDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST RIVER STATEMENTS
FOR DETAILS ON FLOODING.

BREEZY CONDITION ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE FRONT.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME FOR TUESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE HAS
INCREASED FOR WEDNESDAY...WHEN THERE MAY BE A THREAT OF TORNADOES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE NEEDED
NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS.

[StormNine59]

Not to be compared to previous flood events.  This is amazing for parts of KY/MO/NE ARK/IL/IN.  NW Mid TN and West TN may also get involved.  Not to be alarming but everyone needs to be on the lookout for flooding both flash flooding and especially river flooding.   Since this event is drawn over several days and not quite like in May 2010 where you had 24 to 36 hours of downpours the flash flood threat probably wont be as bad as May 2010 or March 1997.  Again every event is different and brings it's own characteristics to the table.  The heaviest rains should exist to the Northwest of Nashville and Memphis, but remember that a southern trend in the precipitation could still occur.  With upcoming severe weather do also remember that events with both severe wx and flooding can be extra dangerous.  


People in the Mid-South and Ohio Valley which is already experiencing some flash flooding and river flooding.  Need to prepare for Severe Weather, and if you live along a river be prepared for possible evacuations.  Flooding may exist well into the lower Miss. River so even down along SE Arkansas, Mississippi, and Louisiana could experience sharp rises in the MS. River.

Edited by andyhb, 28 December 2012 - 04:37 PM.

[ProjectVortex1974]

Confidence level is up to 3 on BMX HWO.That is high for so far in advance.

[trency911]

The SPC SREF tornado ingredients already has a small area of 50 over N MS.  Keep in mind this is still 87 hours out.

[wxfan22]

trency911, on 23 April 2011 - 02:00 PM, said:

The SPC SREF tornado ingredients already has a small area of 50 over N MS.  Keep in mind this is still 87 hours out.

Where do you find that map?

[trency911]

wxfan22, on 23 April 2011 - 02:18 PM, said:

Where do you find that map?

You can find it here.  On the left go to severe weather, then scroll down to tornado ingredients.

[trency911]

Some afternoon discussions:

HSV:

Quote

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY A SHORTWAVE WILL WORK AROUND THE BASE OF THE MAIN
TROF AND TRACK A SURFACE LOW FROM ARKANSAS RAPIDLY NE TO THE GREAT
LAKES...SPARKING CONVECTION TO OUR NW. THIS MAY DEVELOP INTO A MCS
THAT WILL PUSH INTO N AL DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. FROM
MODEL SOUNDINGS...IF THIS SYSTEM HOLDS TOGETHER AS IT MOVES INTO OUR
CWA THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX. BUT THE MAIN STORY WILL STILL
BE WITH THE MAIN TROF AXIS AS IT LEADS TO RAPID LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER
THE ARK-OK-TX REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE THE STRONGER OF THE
TWO SYSTEMS THIS COMING WEEK AND LIKELY DEVELOP STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION ACROSS MS/TN/AL LATE WED MORNING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THE GFS IS MUCH MORE BULLISH IN THE DEEPENING OF THIS SECOND LOW AND
INDICATES A VERY STRONG LL JET DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. THE
ECMWF STILL LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE DEVELOPMENT ON
WEDNESDAY BUT PAINTS A SLIGHTLY WEAKER LL JET /50KTS AS OPPOSED TO
75+KTS JUST TO OUR N WED AFTERNOON/. SVR WX PARAMETERS SPIKE ARND 18Z
WED WITH CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG AND A NICELY CURVED
HODOGRAPH...BUT A SIGNIFICANT CAP IS IN PLACE WED MORNING AT ARND
750-800MB. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD SEE A REPEAT OF THE EVENT
FROM LAST WEEK WHERE THE LINGERING MCS FROM THE FIRST ROUND COULD
SUPPRESS ANY DEVELOPMENT OVER N AL DURING THE SECOND ROUND. FUTURE
SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR MODEL GUIDANCE AS WE GET CLOSER
TO THE EVENT.

FFC:

Quote

THE RIDGE AXIS STAYS ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEAK BUT IT DOES WEAKEN SLOWLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE NEXT MAIN FRONTAL SYSTEM. MODELS SHOWING MOISTURE
INCREASING THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE FIELD ACROSS
THE STATE TUESDAY AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE SKIRTS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STAY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA WED AND SWEEPING THROUGH THE STATE WED
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY TO GOOD
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. RIGHT NOW THIS SYSTEM DOES LOOK LIKE
OUR BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SEVERE WEATHER BUT DO NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE
PUTTING IN IN THE FORECAST YET AS THINGS CAN CHANGE THIS FAR OUT.
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION THU
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SAT.

[TimHSV]

Just a little info, the meteorologist on ABC National, said the upcoming outbreak could rival all so far this season.....

[tennessee storm chaser]

TimHSV, on 23 April 2011 - 05:43 PM, said:

Just a little info, the meteorologist on ABC National, said the upcoming outbreak could rival all so far this season.....

yeah tim just saw that myself. saying next week could rival any out break this year. had a good article on the la nina pattern also.

[tennessee storm chaser]

megs afd out of memphis nws, very bullish still. wish i could paste.

[TimHSV]

KBMX already diving into next week....



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
306 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

.DISCUSSION...


DEEP LAYER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...AND EVEN INTO MONDAY WITH SOME
RESPECTS. THIS WILL KEEP MOST EVERYONE HIGH AND DRY...WITH JUST
SOME OUTSIDE SHOTS OF SEEING MORE TYPICAL AIRMASS BOUNDARY
AFTERNOON THUNDER. OTHERWISE...WE WILL WATCH THE RIDGE FLATTEN
QUITE A BIT AND RETREAT EASTWARD BY TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY.

THAT IS WHERE THE REAL FOCUS OF THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN. WE HAVE
SEVERAL SYNOPTIC FACTORS TO BEGIN LOOKING AT THIS FAR IN
ADVANCE...ONE CERTAINLY WILL BE THE UPPER DIVERGENCE/DIFFLUENCE
THAT SETS UP ACROSS THE MID SOUTH BY LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CAUSE RAPID PRESSURE FALLS AND A DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW TO FORM...BASICALLY FROM LITTLE ROCK TO DETROIT WHILE
DEEPENING 8 TO 10 MB. JUST LIKE WITH APRIL 15...THE TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW WILL BE NEARLY SOUTH TO NORTH...WHICH SHOULD STRETCH
AND EXTEND THE SOUTHEASTERN WARM SECTOR FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST BY WED AFTERNOON. IT IS
NOTED THAT THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE NOT QUITE
AS STRONG AT THIS JUNCTURE...HOWEVER...AS THE DEEP LAYER JET
FIELDS ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ENTER THE WARM
SECTOR...IT IS LOOKING BETTER FOR SUPERCELLS FOLLOWED BY A DECENT
BROKEN SQUALL LINE. I TEND TO FOCUS ON SEVERAL ITEMS THAT COULD BE
CONSIDERED SYNOPTIC TO GET SOME IDEA OF STORM MODE. FIRST IS THE 0
TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR...MAGNITUDE AND ORIENTATION. THE VECTOR
ORIENTATION IS AT AN ALMOST PERFECT 45 DEGREE ANGLE WITH THE
SURFACE FRONT AND INCREASING TO 55 TO 65 KTS INDICATING SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 18 AND 21Z WEDNESDAY...BUT IT DOES BACK MORE
SOUTHEAST AS IT GETS CLOSER TO SUNSET...SUGGESTING THAT A SQUALL
LINE IS MORE LIKELY WITH TIME OR ALONG THE FRONT. NEXT WOULD BE THE 0
TO 8 OR 10 KM BULK SHEAR...WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF LONGER TRACKED
SUPERCELLS.AND IT IS AN IMPRESSIVE 75 KTS FROM 18 TO 00Z. SO THE
SHEAR DOESN`T SEEM TO BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE AT THIS POINT.
THE INSTABILITY IS A BIT MORE PROBLEMATIC...AS THE ARE SEVERAL
CONFLICTING ARGUMENTS THAT WILL TAKE THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO SORT
OUT. WE HAVE STEEP LAPSE RATES BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT...WITH DRY AIR ALOFT TO BOOT. HOWEVER...THE 500 MB TEMPS ARE
A BIT WARMER THIS GO AROUND AT -10 C...ALONG WITH A SUBSTANTIAL
CAP TO WORK THROUGH FROM THE EARLY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE CAP WILL CERTAINLY BE BREAKABLE BY THE FROPA
LATER WEDNESDAY EVE/NIGHT WITH THE SQUALL LINE...HOWEVER...WE MAY
HAVE A LITTLE LATER START TIME WITH THE SUPERCELLS AS
UNABATED...BUFFER SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING NEARLY 100 DEGREES. IT IS
OBVIOUS WE WON`T HIT THAT BY WEDNESDAY MIDDAY...BUT THE LIFT
SHOULD COMPENSATE AND THE CAP WEAKENING WITH TIME COULD ACTUALLY
MAKE THE SCENARIO MUCH WORSE BY HOLDING THE ENERGY DOWN AND
KEEPING THE SKIES CLOUD AND RAIN COOLED FREE EARLY ON. LOTS OF
QUESTIONS AND INTERESTING THINGS TO LOOK AT AND MONITOR FROM THIS
PERSPECTIVE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.

FINALLY...ONE LAST THING...AND THAT IS WHAT TO DO WITH LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THINGS FIRE UPSTREAM AND ROLL THIS WAY.
INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGH LATE TUESDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO CAP
DEVELOPMENT YET. HOWEVER...WAS THINKING THE SHEAR IS NOT QUITE AS
GOOD...BUT DEFINITELY INCREASING WITH TIME...ESPECIALLY AFTER
SUNSET...SO WE BETTER MAINTAIN VIGILANCE...BY NOT THINKING THIS
WILL STRICTLY BE A WED AFTERNOON DEAL. THIS COULD BE A LOT LONGER
DURATION THAN ANTICIPATED.

Edited by TimHSV, 23 April 2011 - 05:54 PM.

[TimHSV]

tennessee storm chaser, on 23 April 2011 - 05:53 PM, said:

megs afd out of memphis nws, very bullish still. wish i could paste.

I got your back





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
357 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011



.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND SEVERE
POTENTIAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

AT 3 PM...A COMPLEX OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS PASSED JUST NORTH
OF NWRN TENNESSEE WITH A TRAILING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE MO
BOOTHEEL WESTWARD INTO NRN ARKANSAS AND ERN/SRN OK. BROAD...MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW IMPINGING UPON THIS BOUNDARY WILL FACILITATE
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF CELLS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
AT LEAST THIS EVENING. MID LEVEL FLOW PARALLEL TO THE FRONT WILL
CAUSE STORMS TO TRAIN AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS. THUS...
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT FOR AREAS NORTH OF
JONESBORO AND DYERSBURG. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG
SHEAR ALONG THE BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE
THIS EVENING.

THIS BOUNDARY WILL WAVER NORTH AND SOUTH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT SHOULD MAKE A MORE NORTHERLY PUSH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AS A SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN SOUTHERN OK. SUNDAY SHOULD BE QUITE
SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONFINED MOST TO THE
FAR NORTH AND NORTHWESTERN AREAS NEAREST TO THE FRONT. CANNOT RULE
OUT A STRAY THUNDERSTORM FURTHER SOUTH. COULD SEE MORE TRAINING
CELLS AND A FEW SEVERE STORMS...SO FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO RE-
EVALUATE THE EXPIRATION TIME OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WHICH GOES
UNTIL 12Z SUNDAY.

HIGHS IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH LOWS
IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT - LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT INTO CENTRAL MO AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP A TRAILING FRONT INTO THE CWA MONDAY
NIGHT. A 50-60 KT MID LEVEL JET WILL OVERSPREAD THE MIDSOUTH IN
ADDITION TO HIGH AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND
MODERATE MLCAPE TUESDAY EVENING. STORM MODE IS STILL
UNCERTAIN...BUT SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS ENVIRONMENT.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
WHICH LEADS ME TO LEAN AGAINST A LINEAR MCS.
NEVERTHELESS...DESPITE SOME TIMING INCONSISTENCIES... RAISED POPS
DURING THIS PERIOD TO CATEGORICAL OVER THE NORTHWEST TWO THIRDS OF
THE MIDSOUTH.

TUESDAY - THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE MIDSOUTH TUESDAY WHILE
ANOTHER... MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AGAIN OVER THE RED
RIVER. STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND VERY HIGH
PW VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL PROBABLY KEEP THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY GOING ALONG THE FRONT...ROUGHLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS THROUGH THE DAY. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND TRAINING
CELLS COULD YIELD SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN IN SOME AREAS TUESDAY. IN
ADDITION...THE SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ON THE SOUTHERN
FRINGE OF THE ACTIVITY AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE UNDISTURBED
AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH AND HIGH SHEAR NEAR THE FRONT. SUPERCELLS ARE
LIKELY IN THIS SCENARIO WITH THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES EVIDENT IN
THE PRESENCE OF LOW LCLS.

TUESDAY NIGHT - THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL PUSH SLIGHTLY NORTH
IN THE EASTERN AREAS...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN STATIONARY FURTHER
WEST NEAR THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. SO WHILE THE EASTERN
AREAS...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF I-40 MAY RECEIVE A RESPITE FROM THE
HEAVY RAIN...THE WESTERN AREAS ARE STILL LIKELY TO BE UNDER THE
GUN DURING THIS TIME AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE OVER
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. SEVERAL MORE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WHICH WILL
ADD TO THE GROWING FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

WEDNESDAY - SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
ARKANSAS AND TOWARD CENTRAL INDIANA WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE FINAL
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. VERY HIGH WIND SHEAR WITH LONG...LOOPING HODOGRAPHS...
MODERATE SBCAPE...AND A NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVELY TILTED WAVE WILL SET
OFF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS. I DON/T THINK MODELS ARE QUITE
HANDLING THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD WELL
ENOUGH...SO CAPE MAY BE HIGHER AND LCL/S MAY BE LOWER THAN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CURRENTLY INDICATE. THUS...SUPERCELLS WITH
TORNADOES...POSSIBLY STRONG AND LONG-LIVED ARE POSSIBLE AS
PREVIOUS SHIFT MENTIONED.SOMETHING INTERESTING OF NOTE...GFS
STRONG TORNADO PARAMETER IS AROUND 20 WHICH IS PRETTY
UNPRECEDENTED /1 OR 2 IS CONSIDERED HIGH/.

TO SUMMARIZE...BETWEEN NOW AND WEDNESDAY TOTAL QPF ON THE ORDER OF
4 TO 8 INCHES IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 WITH 2 TO 4
INCHES EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH. MOST OF THE AREA WILL NEED TO BE
PLACED UNDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT SOME POINT FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...PROBABLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING IS
ALSO LIKELY AS THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF RAIN FALL PARALLEL TO THE
OHIO RIVER BASIN /IN EXCESS OF 10-12 INCHES POSSIBLE THERE/.
MAJOR FLOODING AND/OR RECORD RIVER FLOODING IS PROBABLE ON THE
MISSISSIPPI OVER THE NEXT TWO-THREE WEEKS. KEEP THE FINGERS
CROSSED THAT THIS DOES NOT TURN OUT LIKE THE MAY 1-2 EVENT LAST
YEAR.

MUCH NEEDED DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE LATTER PARTS OF NEXT
WEEK.

BORGHO

Edited by TimHSV, 23 April 2011 - 06:00 PM.

[tennessee storm chaser]

TimHSV, on 23 April 2011 - 05:58 PM, said:

I got your back





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
357 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011



.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND SEVERE
POTENTIAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

AT 3 PM...A COMPLEX OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS PASSED JUST NORTH
OF NWRN TENNESSEE WITH A TRAILING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE MO
BOOTHEEL WESTWARD INTO NRN ARKANSAS AND ERN/SRN OK. BROAD...MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW IMPINGING UPON THIS BOUNDARY WILL FACILITATE
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF CELLS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
AT LEAST THIS EVENING. MID LEVEL FLOW PARALLEL TO THE FRONT WILL
CAUSE STORMS TO TRAIN AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS. THUS...
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT FOR AREAS NORTH OF
JONESBORO AND DYERSBURG. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG
SHEAR ALONG THE BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE
THIS EVENING.

THIS BOUNDARY WILL WAVER NORTH AND SOUTH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT SHOULD MAKE A MORE NORTHERLY PUSH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AS A SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN SOUTHERN OK. SUNDAY SHOULD BE QUITE
SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONFINED MOST TO THE
FAR NORTH AND NORTHWESTERN AREAS NEAREST TO THE FRONT. CANNOT RULE
OUT A STRAY THUNDERSTORM FURTHER SOUTH. COULD SEE MORE TRAINING
CELLS AND A FEW SEVERE STORMS...SO FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO RE-
EVALUATE THE EXPIRATION TIME OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WHICH GOES
UNTIL 12Z SUNDAY.

HIGHS IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH LOWS
IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT - LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT INTO CENTRAL MO AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP A TRAILING FRONT INTO THE CWA MONDAY
NIGHT. A 50-60 KT MID LEVEL JET WILL OVERSPREAD THE MIDSOUTH IN
ADDITION TO HIGH AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND
MODERATE MLCAPE TUESDAY EVENING. STORM MODE IS STILL
UNCERTAIN...BUT SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS ENVIRONMENT.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
WHICH LEADS ME TO LEAN AGAINST A LINEAR MCS.
NEVERTHELESS...DESPITE SOME TIMING INCONSISTENCIES... RAISED POPS
DURING THIS PERIOD TO CATEGORICAL OVER THE NORTHWEST TWO THIRDS OF
THE MIDSOUTH.

TUESDAY - THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE MIDSOUTH TUESDAY WHILE
ANOTHER... MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AGAIN OVER THE RED
RIVER. STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND VERY HIGH
PW VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL PROBABLY KEEP THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY GOING ALONG THE FRONT...ROUGHLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS THROUGH THE DAY. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND TRAINING
CELLS COULD YIELD SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN IN SOME AREAS TUESDAY. IN
ADDITION...THE SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ON THE SOUTHERN
FRINGE OF THE ACTIVITY AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE UNDISTURBED
AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH AND HIGH SHEAR NEAR THE FRONT. SUPERCELLS ARE
LIKELY IN THIS SCENARIO WITH THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES EVIDENT IN
THE PRESENCE OF LOW LCLS.

TUESDAY NIGHT - THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL PUSH SLIGHTLY NORTH
IN THE EASTERN AREAS...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN STATIONARY FURTHER
WEST NEAR THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. SO WHILE THE EASTERN
AREAS...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF I-40 MAY RECEIVE A RESPITE FROM THE
HEAVY RAIN...THE WESTERN AREAS ARE STILL LIKELY TO BE UNDER THE
GUN DURING THIS TIME AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE OVER
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. SEVERAL MORE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WHICH WILL
ADD TO THE GROWING FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

WEDNESDAY - SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
ARKANSAS AND TOWARD CENTRAL INDIANA WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE FINAL
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. VERY HIGH WIND SHEAR WITH LONG...LOOPING HODOGRAPHS...
MODERATE SBCAPE...AND A NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVELY TILTED WAVE WILL SET
OFF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS. I DON/T THINK MODELS ARE QUITE
HANDLING THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD WELL
ENOUGH...SO CAPE MAY BE HIGHER AND LCL/S MAY BE LOWER THAN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CURRENTLY INDICATE. THUS...SUPERCELLS WITH
TORNADOES...POSSIBLY STRONG AND LONG-LIVED ARE POSSIBLE AS
PREVIOUS SHIFT MENTIONED.SOMETHING INTERESTING OF NOTE...GFS
STRONG TORNADO PARAMETER IS AROUND 20 WHICH IS PRETTY
UNPRECEDENTED /1 OR 2 IS CONSIDERED HIGH/.

TO SUMMARIZE...BETWEEN NOW AND WEDNESDAY TOTAL QPF ON THE ORDER OF
4 TO 8 INCHES IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 WITH 2 TO 4
INCHES EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH. MOST OF THE AREA WILL NEED TO BE
PLACED UNDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT SOME POINT FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...PROBABLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING IS
ALSO LIKELY AS THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF RAIN FALL PARALLEL TO THE
OHIO RIVER BASIN /IN EXCESS OF 10-12 INCHES POSSIBLE THERE/.
MAJOR FLOODING AND/OR RECORD RIVER FLOODING IS PROBABLE ON THE
MISSISSIPPI OVER THE NEXT TWO-THREE WEEKS. KEEP THE FINGERS
CROSSED THAT THIS DOES NOT TURN OUT LIKE THE MAY 1-2 EVENT LAST
YEAR.

MUCH NEEDED DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE LATTER PARTS OF NEXT
WEEK.

BORGHO thanks tim, nice job man

[smokedevil]

oh man...could rival anything we've seen so far? hard to imagine it beating the last outbreak..crazy stuff if it does.

[Fred Gossage]

I'm going to have to side with Mr. Grantham on this one... in that Wednesday over in the TN Valley and Deep South... doesn't look quite as explosive as it does on Tuesday west of the Mississippi River. Sure, we have a very strong upper-level trough and strong surface low plowing into a warm sector with decent instability, but there's a helluva lot more to it than that. The upper-level forcing is very strong and linear early on in the day... and grows even more so through the day on Wednesday. The deep-layer winds are very unidirectional, with also little turning in the lowest 1 km. The low-level jet axis is JUST ahead of the surface front on Wednesday. There is also a pretty substantial cap over the warm sector out ahead of the surface front during the day. Sure, speed shear is very good... and the instability is good. However, even if we see discrete cells ahead of the line... I would tend to think that the threat of strong/long-tracked tornadoes will be mitigated by the relatively high LCL heights (over 1200m over AL during the afternoon). I see Wednesday being a Moderate Risk... possibly over a large area... with several tornado watches and warnings. However... I think that Wednesday may be more of a widespread damaging wind event, possibly even a serial derecho event, rather than another major tornado outbreak. Tuesday to the west may be a totally different story though.....

[vegaseagle]

I believe Fred is correct. The high LCL heights might keep this more in a high wind day with few twisters. But, it is still early for now.

[skywatcher22]

Fred Gossage, on 23 April 2011 - 08:22 PM, said:

I'm going to have to side with Mr. Grantham on this one... in that Wednesday over in the TN Valley and Deep South... doesn't look quite as explosive as it does on Tuesday west of the Mississippi River. Sure, we have a very strong upper-level trough and strong surface low plowing into a warm sector with decent instability, but there's a helluva lot more to it than that. The upper-level forcing is very strong and linear early on in the day... and grows even more so through the day on Wednesday. The deep-layer winds are very unidirectional, with also little turning in the lowest 1 km. The low-level jet axis is JUST ahead of the surface front on Wednesday. There is also a pretty substantial cap over the warm sector out ahead of the surface front during the day. Sure, speed shear is very good... and the instability is good. However, even if we see discrete cells ahead of the line... I would tend to think that the threat of strong/long-tracked tornadoes will be mitigated by the relatively high LCL heights (over 1200m over AL during the afternoon). I see Wednesday being a Moderate Risk... possibly over a large area... with several tornado watches and warnings. However... I think that Wednesday may be more of a widespread damaging wind event, possibly even a serial derecho event, rather than another major tornado outbreak. Tuesday to the west may be a totally different story though.....

Not sure I could have said it better.

[NorthGaWeather]

The big story this week may be historic and devastating flooding along the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers.

[bugalou]

NorthGaWeather, on 23 April 2011 - 11:00 PM, said:

The big story this week may be historic and devastating flooding along the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers.

You speak the truth.  This is the most threatening flooding scenario I have seen for the MS river in my relatively short career (29 years) of weather tracking.

[Harlequhn_Boy]

bugalou, on 24 April 2011 - 01:04 AM, said:

You speak the truth.  This is the most threatening flooding scenario I have seen for the MS river in my relatively short career (29 years) of weather tracking.

If this pans out it will indeed be the most threatening flood at some gauges in the Lower Mississippi River Valley since 1937. As you know, but others might not, Memphis is expected to crest above 1997 and below 1927 and 37. So could be the highest level in 74 years. MEG's warnings for upstream are already ominous. Levees would be topped if the forecast crest is reached in in NW TN/SE MO. Plus Paducah is calling for Cairo to set its all time level. Even if the heaviest rains don't pan out we're still going for a Top 5 event...

[TimHSV]

Dangerous forecast sounding from 06ZNAM centered on Tupelo,MS. at 18Z Wednesday afternoon. Lapse rates are about 6.5, which is adequate, but may be underforecasted a bit. Would also like to see a little more turning of the winds between 0-1km, but will keep watching for any changes.

Wright-Weather

Edited by TimHSV, 24 April 2011 - 04:19 AM.

[TimHSV]

FYI....



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
419 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

.DISCUSSION...
HISTORICAL TYPE OF EVENT SEEMS TO BE UNFOLDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
OHIO AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY THIS EASTER WEEKEND...WHICH WILL LAST
INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...ESP IN REGARDS TO EXTENDED PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF ON AND OFF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

ALREADY HAVE RADAR/SATELLITE AND SOME ACTUAL REPORTS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THE PAST 12 TO 24 HOURS OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND ALONG THE OHIO RIVER IN
SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND KENTUCKY.

IN A NUTSHELL...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK AS DEEP/RICH SWLY FLOW
REGIME MAINTAINS ITSELF...ALONG WITH THE PASSAGE OF MULTIPLE
STRONG MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES AND A QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT
WILL FEATURE SEVERAL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DURING THE
PERIOD.

HAVE ISSUED FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY THIS MORNING FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. WATER RESCUES HAVE BEEN REPORTED NEAR POPLAR
BLUFF...WITH WATER REPORTED IN SOME HOMES. SAME AREA IS GETTING
POUNDED BY ANOTHER QUICK 1 TO 3 INCHES...SO BELIEVE EMERGENCY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THIS
EASTER MORNING. LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS CONTINUE OT SHOW CLOUD TO
COOLING MOVING INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY.

AM QUITE CONCERNED ABOUT THOSE VENTURING OUT FOR EASTER MORNING
SERVICES IN SOME OF THESE AREAS.

YET ANOTHER STORM COMPLEX IS FORMING OUT IN OKLAHOMA. EXPECT
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN TO CONTINUE OFF AN ON OVER ALL EXCEPT THE
SRN PENNYRILE....ESP THROUGH AT LEAST TUE MORNING...WHEN A
STRONGER SFC LOW SHOULD LIFT NE TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN. NEGATIVELY
TILTED STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL ADD TO OVERALL UPPER
DIVERGENCE/ASCENT AND MAY BE THE NEXT CHC OF EXTENSIVE SEVERE
STORM OUTBREAK. THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY EVENING. ALL OF THIS...COMBINED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES RUNNING OVER 1.65 INCHES...SPELLS VERY BAD NEWS FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION.DUE TO ALL MENTIONED ABOVE...AND AFTER COLLAB WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES...HAVE DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AT LEAST THROUGH TUE MORNING. THIS IS ALREADY A MAJOR EVENT
IN SOME LOCATIONS...AND THINGS ARE ONLY GOING TO WORSEN.

IF THAT IS NOT ENOUGH...AFTER THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC FRONT MOVES
THROUGH TUE MORNING....IT SHOULD STALL JUST SOUTH OF OUR
REGION...THEN RETURN AS A WARM FRONT TUE NIGHT/WED TIME
FRAME...AND BRING YET ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLY
SEVERE STORMS.

VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION SEEMS TO BE SETTING UP ACROSS THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS EASTER WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK. ALREADY BIG SPRINGS AND FARMINGTON MO REPORTING
OVER 5 INCHES OVERNIGHT. POSSIBLY ANOTHER 7 TO 10 INCHES ON THE
WAY....AND MANY RIVERS ALREADY IN FLOOD. PAINTS AN UGLY PICTURE
FOR SURE.

[mwbwhorton]

TimHSV, on 24 April 2011 - 04:24 AM, said:

FYI....



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
419 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

.DISCUSSION...
HISTORICAL TYPE OF EVENT SEEMS TO BE UNFOLDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
OHIO AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY THIS EASTER WEEKEND...WHICH WILL LAST
INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...ESP IN REGARDS TO EXTENDED PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF ON AND OFF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

ALREADY HAVE RADAR/SATELLITE AND SOME ACTUAL REPORTS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THE PAST 12 TO 24 HOURS OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND ALONG THE OHIO RIVER IN
SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND KENTUCKY.

IN A NUTSHELL...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK AS DEEP/RICH SWLY FLOW
REGIME MAINTAINS ITSELF...ALONG WITH THE PASSAGE OF MULTIPLE
STRONG MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES AND A QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT
WILL FEATURE SEVERAL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DURING THE
PERIOD.

HAVE ISSUED FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY THIS MORNING FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. WATER RESCUES HAVE BEEN REPORTED NEAR POPLAR
BLUFF...WITH WATER REPORTED IN SOME HOMES. SAME AREA IS GETTING
POUNDED BY ANOTHER QUICK 1 TO 3 INCHES...SO BELIEVE EMERGENCY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THIS
EASTER MORNING. LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS CONTINUE OT SHOW CLOUD TO
COOLING MOVING INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY.

AM QUITE CONCERNED ABOUT THOSE VENTURING OUT FOR EASTER MORNING
SERVICES IN SOME OF THESE AREAS.

YET ANOTHER STORM COMPLEX IS FORMING OUT IN OKLAHOMA. EXPECT
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN TO CONTINUE OFF AN ON OVER ALL EXCEPT THE
SRN PENNYRILE....ESP THROUGH AT LEAST TUE MORNING...WHEN A
STRONGER SFC LOW SHOULD LIFT NE TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN. NEGATIVELY
TILTED STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL ADD TO OVERALL UPPER
DIVERGENCE/ASCENT AND MAY BE THE NEXT CHC OF EXTENSIVE SEVERE
STORM OUTBREAK. THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY EVENING. ALL OF THIS...COMBINED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES RUNNING OVER 1.65 INCHES...SPELLS VERY BAD NEWS FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION.DUE TO ALL MENTIONED ABOVE...AND AFTER COLLAB WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES...HAVE DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AT LEAST THROUGH TUE MORNING. THIS IS ALREADY A MAJOR EVENT
IN SOME LOCATIONS...AND THINGS ARE ONLY GOING TO WORSEN.

IF THAT IS NOT ENOUGH...AFTER THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC FRONT MOVES
THROUGH TUE MORNING....IT SHOULD STALL JUST SOUTH OF OUR
REGION...THEN RETURN AS A WARM FRONT TUE NIGHT/WED TIME
FRAME...AND BRING YET ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLY
SEVERE STORMS.

VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION SEEMS TO BE SETTING UP ACROSS THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS EASTER WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK. ALREADY BIG SPRINGS AND FARMINGTON MO REPORTING
OVER 5 INCHES OVERNIGHT. POSSIBLY ANOTHER 7 TO 10 INCHES ON THE
WAY....AND MANY RIVERS ALREADY IN FLOOD. PAINTS AN UGLY PICTURE
FOR SURE.

nothing more needs to be said over what is said in this disussion....bad bad situation to our north and tornadoes may be a problem south of there by Tuesday...

[mwbwhorton]

BTW is the situation still as explosive looking here in louisiana i noticed they seem to be backing off a bit to the east of me yet im hearing areas west of the mississippi river could have major tornado problems with this system especially the arklatex and arklamiss....