From the ABC 33/40 weather blog this morning:
"NEXT WEEK: Sure looks like a significant severe weather event is ahead, initially west of Alabama Tuesday, then moving into the Deep South by Tuesday night and Wednesday. Way too early to be specific on the threat, but all of the players are on the field. Best hope for us is for the band of storms to come through during the pre-dawn hours Wednesday when the air tends to be more stable, but I get the idea it might be an event mainly during the daytime Wednesday. See the Weather Xtreme video for details."
I can't read models, so for those that can, what's your take on this?
5
Severe threat April 26-27, 2011
Started by
MichelleH
, Apr 20 2011 07:09 AM
3137 replies to this topic
#3
gwalls
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Posted 20 April 2011 - 08:38 AM
I'm sick of spring...I'm sick of having allergies....I'm sick of having rain every other day. I want the sun to shine and no more severe weather. When is this pattern going to change?
Oh Lord, it's hard to be humble when your perfect in every way. I can't wait to look in the mirror. I get better looking everyday. To know me is to love me, I must be one helluva fan. Oh Lord, it's hard to be humble....when you're an ARKANSAS RAZORBACK fan!! Go HOGS Go!!
#5
AprilA
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Posted 20 April 2011 - 09:17 AM
gwalls, on 20 April 2011 - 08:38 AM, said:
I'm sick of spring...I'm sick of having allergies....I'm sick of having rain every other day. I want the sun to shine and no more severe weather. When is this pattern going to change?
I have to agree! Our grass is knee high.. We haven't been able to mow once this year, it's been so wet :/ 2 acres of knee high grass is gonna be fun trying to mow, if it ever dries up enough to mow...
#6
sutton82
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Posted 20 April 2011 - 10:01 AM
SD, on 20 April 2011 - 08:43 AM, said:
Fairly concering large scale setup showing, especially on the euro.
A long way to go with this one. Should be fun to watch.
#7
gwalls
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Posted 20 April 2011 - 10:26 AM
AprilA, on 20 April 2011 - 09:17 AM, said:
I have to agree! Our grass is knee high.. We haven't been able to mow once this year, it's been so wet :/ 2 acres of knee high grass is gonna be fun trying to mow, if it ever dries up enough to mow...
Oh Lord, it's hard to be humble when your perfect in every way. I can't wait to look in the mirror. I get better looking everyday. To know me is to love me, I must be one helluva fan. Oh Lord, it's hard to be humble....when you're an ARKANSAS RAZORBACK fan!! Go HOGS Go!!
#8
trency911
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Posted 20 April 2011 - 10:33 AM
Still far out there, but a very large warm sector with widespread 60-70 Td's from the Ohio Valley south to the coast. I know things will change, but taking a quick look at hodo's and once again they are long and clockwise curving with impressive 0-3KM helicity values.
"Failure is simply an opportunity to begin again, this time more intelligently."
#9
SD
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Posted 20 April 2011 - 05:17 PM
One mitigating factor in the long run for this type of setup may be a limited to non existent EML. Given the prolonged period of direct flow out of the gulf its possible we may just totally load the profiles with moisture and get much more of a mid summer type look versus a spring look. But Im just thinking out loud really.
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#10
trency911
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Posted 20 April 2011 - 05:25 PM
SD, on 20 April 2011 - 05:17 PM, said:
One mitigating factor in the long run for this type of setup may be a limited to non existent EML. Given the prolonged period of direct flow out of the gulf its possible we may just totally load the profiles with moisture and get much more of a mid summer type look versus a spring look. But Im just thinking out loud really.
EML is like the CAP right?
"Failure is simply an opportunity to begin again, this time more intelligently."
#11
SD
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Posted 20 April 2011 - 05:37 PM
trency911, on 20 April 2011 - 05:25 PM, said:
EML is like the CAP right?
http://www.banglades...ML/emlpage.html
Mississippi State Broadcast Met Student
#12
trency911
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Posted 20 April 2011 - 05:50 PM
SD, on 20 April 2011 - 05:37 PM, said:
It is..here is a good write up with tons of example soundings
http://www.banglades...ML/emlpage.html
http://www.banglades...ML/emlpage.html
Thanks for the link.
"Failure is simply an opportunity to begin again, this time more intelligently."
#14
AprilA
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Posted 20 April 2011 - 07:15 PM
gwalls, on 20 April 2011 - 10:26 AM, said:
Isn't that the truth...it will take a week of sun to dry it up enough to mow. Doesn't look like that's happening for a while. This weather is seriously messing my schedules up. Its baseball season for us and at the rate we are going we'll be playing until November.LOL! Did you have much damage last night? Blytheville was hit pretty hard but we escaped it out here.
At this point it may take longer than a week...lol At least we didn't get much rain last night. We dodged the bullet last night. we're just a hair north of Gosnell, just barely into MO. We heard Gosnell's sirens going off in our backyard. I saw a little damage when I drove through Gosnell today, but it was minimal. We didn't have any damage, but the wind blew our satellite out of alignment.. Thought we were going to get some more rain this evening, but it stayed south of here, thankfully. Hope it's not storming Friday because that's the market set-up day and we have an open bed truck.. I don't want my stuff to get wet!
#15
ARCC
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Posted 21 April 2011 - 06:25 AM
0z GFS is getting closer to showing another tornado outbreak for this time frame.
"I want to be that man,
who loves the Lord with all his heart just like his word commands,
who takes a stand, and leads his family as he holds the Father's hand,
I want to be that man!"
I Want to be that Man
Brian Free and Assurance
What You Need to Know:
The Cross paved the way for Freedom!
Calvary purchased our Freedom!
And so, I thought, the anvil of God's Word,
For ages, skeptics blows have beat upon;
Yet, though the noise of falling blows was heard,
The anvil is unharmed - the hammers gone.
John Clifford
who loves the Lord with all his heart just like his word commands,
who takes a stand, and leads his family as he holds the Father's hand,
I want to be that man!"
I Want to be that Man
Brian Free and Assurance
What You Need to Know:
The Cross paved the way for Freedom!
Calvary purchased our Freedom!
And so, I thought, the anvil of God's Word,
For ages, skeptics blows have beat upon;
Yet, though the noise of falling blows was heard,
The anvil is unharmed - the hammers gone.
John Clifford
#16
Tyler Penland
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Posted 21 April 2011 - 12:08 PM
Its a week out but does it look like N GA will get left out of this one too?
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or Talkweather.com. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
"Scratch my back with a lightning bolt
Thunder rolls like a basedrum note
The sounds of the weather is heaven's ragtime band..."~JB
"We ask ourselves when we get in a fix, what would Popeye do in a tight spot like this?
He'd race for his true love and easily win it, in an old spinach can with a mast stuck in it..."~JB
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or Talkweather.com. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
"Scratch my back with a lightning bolt
Thunder rolls like a basedrum note
The sounds of the weather is heaven's ragtime band..."~JB
"We ask ourselves when we get in a fix, what would Popeye do in a tight spot like this?
He'd race for his true love and easily win it, in an old spinach can with a mast stuck in it..."~JB
My weather page on Facebook: www.facebook.com/northeastgawx
And my blog: www.northgawx.com
SKYWARN Spotter; Cleveland, GA as of 4-12-11 :)
2012 AmericanWx NASCAR Pick'em Champion.
#17
trency911
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Posted 21 April 2011 - 12:42 PM
Tyler Penland, on 21 April 2011 - 12:08 PM, said:
Its a week out but does it look like N GA will get left out of this one too?
"Failure is simply an opportunity to begin again, this time more intelligently."
#18
trency911
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Posted 21 April 2011 - 03:26 PM
BMX
THE UPPER TROF OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD AND BRING AND A MORE ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN BACK INTO ALABAMA NEXT WEEK. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING INITIAL SURFACE LOW OVER OKLAHOMA AND PULLING IT RAPIDLY NORTHEAST. THIS WILL PUSH A WEAKENING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS WEST ALABAMA MONDAY NIGHT. THE SECOND SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH AND BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF SEVERE STORMS TO ALABAMA ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR OUT THE RAIN BY THURSDAY.
THE UPPER TROF OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD AND BRING AND A MORE ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN BACK INTO ALABAMA NEXT WEEK. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING INITIAL SURFACE LOW OVER OKLAHOMA AND PULLING IT RAPIDLY NORTHEAST. THIS WILL PUSH A WEAKENING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS WEST ALABAMA MONDAY NIGHT. THE SECOND SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH AND BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF SEVERE STORMS TO ALABAMA ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR OUT THE RAIN BY THURSDAY.
"Failure is simply an opportunity to begin again, this time more intelligently."
#20
smokedevil
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Posted 21 April 2011 - 04:18 PM
yes, and here it is.....
THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH A BIT FOR SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS LOW WILL TRACK ALONG
THE FRONT INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER...ALMOST IDENTICAL SYSTEM WILL TAKE A SLIGHTLY MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK FROM NORTH TEXAS THROUGH ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHERN
INDIANA TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH WILL GIVE THE MIDSOUTH A GOOD SHOT AT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ONE OR BOTH BEING SIGNIFICANT
OUTBREAKS - PARTICULARLY AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS EACH NIGHT AND
LENGTHENS THE HODOGRAPHS. PROLONGED FETCH OF MOISTURE LADEN AIR
SHOULD BRING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NORTHWARD. STORM
MODE AND TIMING ARE STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN...BUT THE DYNAMICS AND
SHEAR INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR TWO HIGHER END EVENTS EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH A BIT FOR SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS LOW WILL TRACK ALONG
THE FRONT INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER...ALMOST IDENTICAL SYSTEM WILL TAKE A SLIGHTLY MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK FROM NORTH TEXAS THROUGH ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHERN
INDIANA TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH WILL GIVE THE MIDSOUTH A GOOD SHOT AT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ONE OR BOTH BEING SIGNIFICANT
OUTBREAKS - PARTICULARLY AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS EACH NIGHT AND
LENGTHENS THE HODOGRAPHS. PROLONGED FETCH OF MOISTURE LADEN AIR
SHOULD BRING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NORTHWARD. STORM
MODE AND TIMING ARE STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN...BUT THE DYNAMICS AND
SHEAR INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR TWO HIGHER END EVENTS EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
#21
ARCC
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Posted 21 April 2011 - 04:27 PM
The second one has all the looks of a possibly major outbreak across MS and AL. Instability is lacking on the GFS as of now, but that will likely change. Had better hope the timing changes or we may deal with a mid-night outbreak. Fun.
"I want to be that man,
who loves the Lord with all his heart just like his word commands,
who takes a stand, and leads his family as he holds the Father's hand,
I want to be that man!"
I Want to be that Man
Brian Free and Assurance
What You Need to Know:
The Cross paved the way for Freedom!
Calvary purchased our Freedom!
And so, I thought, the anvil of God's Word,
For ages, skeptics blows have beat upon;
Yet, though the noise of falling blows was heard,
The anvil is unharmed - the hammers gone.
John Clifford
who loves the Lord with all his heart just like his word commands,
who takes a stand, and leads his family as he holds the Father's hand,
I want to be that man!"
I Want to be that Man
Brian Free and Assurance
What You Need to Know:
The Cross paved the way for Freedom!
Calvary purchased our Freedom!
And so, I thought, the anvil of God's Word,
For ages, skeptics blows have beat upon;
Yet, though the noise of falling blows was heard,
The anvil is unharmed - the hammers gone.
John Clifford
#23
sutton82
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Posted 21 April 2011 - 04:50 PM
trency911, on 21 April 2011 - 04:39 PM, said:
From Henry on Accuwx...I know,I know.
[img]
[img]
That is completely irresponsible of him to do at this time. His blog post sounds too matter of fact, instead of saying it is just a possibility.
Note: I removed the image for space concerns, see quoted post for image.
#24
StormNine59
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Posted 21 April 2011 - 05:05 PM
With all the heavy rains falling along the Ohio River, and across the northern-mid portions of the MS river valley. I would a little on down the line be very concerned with river flooding for both the OH River, MS River, and some of their tributaries.
Please keep the families impacted by this year's severe weather in your thoughts and prayers.
#25
acral
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Posted 21 April 2011 - 05:09 PM
April showers bring May flowers... hehehe Seriously, it does look like the players are taking the field early next week... should be quite interesting.
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#26
Taylor Campbell
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Posted 21 April 2011 - 07:47 PM
trency911, on 21 April 2011 - 12:42 PM, said:
Timing will probably change, but 12z gfs has it coming through Wednesday afternoon into the evening.
The GFS has already been all over the place today. Lol. The 06z seems to be somewhere in the middle which is slower then the 12z by a tad, but still coming through during the afternoon and evening which will help pose a higher threat for Georgia.
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University of West Georgia
Computer Science 15'
#27
Tyler Penland
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Posted 21 April 2011 - 08:36 PM
TaylorCampbell, on 21 April 2011 - 07:47 PM, said:
The GFS has already been all over the place today. Lol. The 06z seems to be somewhere in the middle which is slower then the 12z by a tad, but still coming through during the afternoon and evening which will help pose a higher threat for Georgia.
It will probably end up being yet another night event so I don't get to see barely even any lightning. Not hoping for an EF5 or anything but some small hail and strong winds would be nice. It'd help get rid of all this pollen.
Edited by Tyler Penland, 21 April 2011 - 08:36 PM.
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or Talkweather.com. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
"Scratch my back with a lightning bolt
Thunder rolls like a basedrum note
The sounds of the weather is heaven's ragtime band..."~JB
"We ask ourselves when we get in a fix, what would Popeye do in a tight spot like this?
He'd race for his true love and easily win it, in an old spinach can with a mast stuck in it..."~JB
My weather page on Facebook: www.facebook.com/northeastgawx
And my blog: www.northgawx.com
SKYWARN Spotter; Cleveland, GA as of 4-12-11 :)
2012 AmericanWx NASCAR Pick'em Champion.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or Talkweather.com. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
"Scratch my back with a lightning bolt
Thunder rolls like a basedrum note
The sounds of the weather is heaven's ragtime band..."~JB
"We ask ourselves when we get in a fix, what would Popeye do in a tight spot like this?
He'd race for his true love and easily win it, in an old spinach can with a mast stuck in it..."~JB
My weather page on Facebook: www.facebook.com/northeastgawx
And my blog: www.northgawx.com
SKYWARN Spotter; Cleveland, GA as of 4-12-11 :)
2012 AmericanWx NASCAR Pick'em Champion.
#29
bingcrosbyb
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Posted 21 April 2011 - 09:04 PM
And there it is. Never seen one that displays possible storm impacts. Must be an office preference.
Quote
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
903 PM CDT THU APR 21 2011
TXC253-441-220230-
/O.CON.KSJT.TO.W.0009.000000T0000Z-110422T0230Z/
JONES TX-TAYLOR TX-
903 PM CDT THU APR 21 2011
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN TAYLOR AND SOUTHEASTERN JONES COUNTIES...
AT 900 PM CDT...A TORNADO WAS CONFIRMED! THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED
NEAR HODGES...OR 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF ABILENE...MOVING EAST AT 25
MPH.
STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
DANGEROUS TORNADIC WINDS.
GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
WITH POSSIBLE STORM IMPACTS...
OVERTURNED VEHICLES...
DAMAGE TO TREES...SOME MAY BE UPROOTED...
DAMAGE TO HOMES...MAY DESTROY MANUFACTURED HOMES.
DENTED VEHICLES
MODERATE ROOF DAMAGE
MAY BREAK WINDOWS ON VEHICLES AND HOMES
MAY INJURE PEOPLE...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK LEFT UNPROTECTED.
DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS...
LIGHT OBJECTS BLOWN AROUND.
THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
IMPACT AND ABILENE BY 910 PM CDT...
HAMBY BY 920 PM CDT...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
903 PM CDT THU APR 21 2011
TXC253-441-220230-
/O.CON.KSJT.TO.W.0009.000000T0000Z-110422T0230Z/
JONES TX-TAYLOR TX-
903 PM CDT THU APR 21 2011
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN TAYLOR AND SOUTHEASTERN JONES COUNTIES...
AT 900 PM CDT...A TORNADO WAS CONFIRMED! THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED
NEAR HODGES...OR 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF ABILENE...MOVING EAST AT 25
MPH.
STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
DANGEROUS TORNADIC WINDS.
GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
WITH POSSIBLE STORM IMPACTS...
OVERTURNED VEHICLES...
DAMAGE TO TREES...SOME MAY BE UPROOTED...
DAMAGE TO HOMES...MAY DESTROY MANUFACTURED HOMES.
DENTED VEHICLES
MODERATE ROOF DAMAGE
MAY BREAK WINDOWS ON VEHICLES AND HOMES
MAY INJURE PEOPLE...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK LEFT UNPROTECTED.
DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS...
LIGHT OBJECTS BLOWN AROUND.
THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
IMPACT AND ABILENE BY 910 PM CDT...
HAMBY BY 920 PM CDT...
Edited by bingcrosbyb, 21 April 2011 - 09:06 PM.
2011-2012 Winter Snow Events
November 28-29, 2011: ??????
2011-2012 Total: 0"
Seasonal Avg: 2"
November 28-29, 2011: ??????
2011-2012 Total: 0"
Seasonal Avg: 2"
#30
tennessee storm chaser
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Posted 21 April 2011 - 09:31 PM
time frame from late monday into mid week going to be interesting to watch. looking at gfs and euro at this point... scream a major severe outbreak potential for the midsouth and tennessee valey region and perhaps into the deep south. kind of intersting to hear everyones thoughts on this setup. need to put a apb out on fred. going to be interesting to hear fred gossage thoughts on this sytem next week.
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