300 replies to this topic

[WreckognizeThisWeather!]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
523 AM CST SUN JAN 10 2010


...LONG TERM...A DESCENDING 170KT SUBTROPICAL JET NEAR BAJA AROUND
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK STILL LOOKS TO CARVE OUT AND DIG A DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO. GFS MODEL AGRREMENT WITH THE EURO AND
AVAILABLE ENERGY TO THIS SYSTEM BEARS SOME SIMILARITIES WITH THE
GULF STORM SYSTEM OF MARCH `93. A DEEP AND INTENSIFYING GULF LOW
BELOW 1000HPA IS DEPICTED ON THE LATEST GFS RUN OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF EARLY SATURDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS ARE POSSIBLE. STAY TUNED.

Edited by WreckognizeThisWeather!, 10 January 2010 - 06:42 AM.

[brax]

StormStalker, on 09 January 2010 - 10:39 PM, said:

http://www.examiner....10-at-700-PM-CT

Larry Cosgrove gives his thoughts on next weekends storm about middle ways there on the link i posted above.

Quite the interesting read.... Its hard to believe that the days are going to get into the 50s here in Atlanta while there is still snow and ice on the ground.... His writeup almost makes it sound as if he expects a 93 type event where a cold front will form and drop some cold air down into the SE while this system is moving through..

Quote

I also believe that with a cold front (IcA) and 500MB confluence issues north of the disturbance, more frozen types will be involved. This feature is a candidate for both cold air damming and redevelopment, and I would not be surprised to see a mixed precipitation band or even an ice storm affect an area from NE TX through the Mid-South into the Piedmont region of VA/NC/SC.

I just hope we get more than just heavy rain and wind here in Atlanta...

[Cyclogent]

WreckognizeThisWeather!, on 10 January 2010 - 06:40 AM, said:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
523 AM CST SUN JAN 10 2010


...LONG TERM...A DESCENDING 170KT SUBTROPICAL JET NEAR BAJA AROUND
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK STILL LOOKS TO CARVE OUT AND DIG A DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO. GFS MODEL AGRREMENT WITH THE EURO AND
AVAILABLE ENERGY TO THIS SYSTEM BEARS SOME SIMILARITIES WITH THE
GULF STORM SYSTEM OF MARCH `93. A DEEP AND INTENSIFYING GULF LOW
BELOW 1000HPA IS DEPICTED ON THE LATEST GFS RUN OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF EARLY SATURDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS ARE POSSIBLE. STAY TUNED.

With all due respect to the hard working mets in Lake Charles...yes this does indeed appear to be a rather strong low with some windy conditions but comparing it to March '93, I must say, is a potential public panic causing no no.  This a a totally completely different pattern.  Our storm of interest is an independent southern stream system while '93 was a triple phase of the southern/northern/polar jets.  We will most likely never see another March 93 in our lifetimes.  Please never reference it again unless you are confident in a triple phaser setup.  Please.  Thank you.  

[atlwx]

brax, on 10 January 2010 - 07:28 AM, said:

Quite the interesting read.... Its hard to believe that the days are going to get into the 50s here in Atlanta while there is still snow and ice on the ground.... His writeup almost makes it sound as if he expects a 93 type event where a cold front will form and drop some cold air down into the SE while this system is moving through..



I just hope we get more than just heavy rain and wind here in Atlanta...

Don't quite get the 1993 feel from that article...  the 1993 storm involved a little bit more than Cosgrove mentioned...  I think the 1993 storm was what they call a "triple phaser"...  the "blizzard of '93" was the result of the subtropical, the polar, and the arctic jets all phasing up in a very rare event(? feel free to correct if I'm wrong on that)...  still looks like a big storm none the less...  I'm with ya on that hope for Atlanta too!  As long as it is sleet and/or snow....  none of the ZR mess!

EDIT: see Cyclogent's post (above) for a much better description of the '93 event...

Edited by atlwx, 10 January 2010 - 09:31 AM.

[stormvideoman]

Cyclogent, on 10 January 2010 - 09:19 AM, said:

With all due respect to the hard working mets in Lake Charles...yes this does indeed appear to be a rather strong low with some windy conditions but comparing it to March '93, I must say, is a potential public panic causing no no.  This a a totally completely different pattern.  Our storm of interest is an independent southern stream system while '93 was a triple phase of the southern/northern/polar jets.  We will most likely never see another March 93 in our lifetimes.  Please never reference it again unless you are confident in a triple phaser setup.  Please.  Thank you.  

I'm glad you posted this.  When I saw that AFD I about fell out of my chair.  There have been a few systems over the past 16 years where folks have mentioned March '93 in reference to them, and you know what, not one has even come close to resembling March '93.  This pattern is different, and the end result is going to be very different.  The only thing I can think of as to why this was referenced is the sensible weather with the potential storm late this week will be similar in the Lake Charles area to the storm in 1993.  Beyond that, and for other areas of the Southeast, this is an entirely different beast.

[atlwx]

Cyclogent, on 10 January 2010 - 09:19 AM, said:

With all due respect to the hard working mets in Lake Charles...yes this does indeed appear to be a rather strong low with some windy conditions but comparing it to March '93, I must say, is a potential public panic causing no no.  This a a totally completely different pattern.  Our storm of interest is an independent southern stream system while '93 was a triple phase of the southern/northern/polar jets.  We will most likely never see another March 93 in our lifetimes.  Please never reference it again unless you are confident in a triple phaser setup.  Please.  Thank you.  

I love the way 1993 is the equivalent of saying "Voldemort" in the weather community!  Though having witnessed it first-hand, I completely understand why...

[brax]

It would be really cool (bad, but cool to see) if the storm formed an eye before coming on shore... I'm pretty sure cold core storms can still form an eye... Or am I mistaken?


Also: Tallahassee's take on the system:

Quote

A LARGE AND VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OFF THE TX COAST ON FRIDAY...BRINGING INCREASING
TEMPERATURES...RAIN CHANCES...AND WINDS TO OUR REGION FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST A TRIPLE POINT LOW TO
DEVELOP NEAR TALLAHASSEE BY FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY AS THE MAIN LOW
BEGINS TO OCCLUDE OVER LA. IF THIS FORECAST HOLDS...THE WARM SECTOR
(AND ACCOMPANYING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT) WOULD LIKELY BE ACROSS THE
FL PENINSULA AND NOT OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS IS FAIRLY TYPICAL OF EL
NINO SYSTEMS THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND WE EXPECT PLENTY OF RAIN WITH
THIS SYSTEM UNLESS THE FORECAST DEVELOPS MUCH DIFFERENTLY (AS IT
STILL CAN THIS FAR OUT IN TIME). THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF ARE
FORECASTING 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA FROM
FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

Edited by brax, 10 January 2010 - 10:20 AM.

[AlabamaStormTracker]

brax, on 10 January 2010 - 10:13 AM, said:

It would be really cool (bad, but cool to see) if the storm formed an eye before coming on shore... I'm pretty sure cold core storms can still form an eye... Or am I mistaken?


Also: Tallahassee's take on the system:

Don't get me wrong.....I think they can but they aren't all that common. I need to study this a little more but given the cold air aloft associated with a cold core storm system.....I believe you have steeper lapse rates and thus cloud cover usually is widespread. Also, with cold core system you have the mid latitude cyclone aloft instead of an anticyclone causing the sinking motion within an "eye". Maybe someone else can enlighten us just a bit, but I think that has something to do with it.

[atlwx]

AlabamaStormTracker, on 10 January 2010 - 10:31 AM, said:

Don't get me wrong.....I think they can but they aren't all that common. I need to study this a little more but given the cold air aloft associated with a cold core storm system.....I believe you have steeper lapse rates and thus cloud cover usually is widespread. Also, with cold core system you have the mid latitude cyclone aloft instead of an anticyclone causing the sinking motion within an "eye". Maybe someone else can enlighten us just a bit, but I think that has something to do with it.

they indeed can...  see wiki for Nor'easter...  even has a picture...

http://en.wikipedia..../Nor'easter

[southalwx]

hmm ... I'm a little busy .. anyone want to enlighten me on the last 24 hours of modeling trends?

[brax]

Cyclogent, on 10 January 2010 - 09:19 AM, said:

With all due respect to the hard working mets in Lake Charles...yes this does indeed appear to be a rather strong low with some windy conditions but comparing it to March '93, I must say, is a potential public panic causing no no.  This a a totally completely different pattern.  Our storm of interest is an independent southern stream system while '93 was a triple phase of the southern/northern/polar jets.  We will most likely never see another March 93 in our lifetimes.  Please never reference it again unless you are confident in a triple phaser setup.  Please.  Thank you.  

Wikipedia has a decent writeup of that storm.

http://en.wikipedia...._Century_(1993)



Also: a surface map for those curious:



AND the 12GFS

Edited by brax, 10 January 2010 - 01:13 PM.

[SD]

Everything looks the same to me. I wouldnt buy the solution of the 12z GFS today after it breaks down the main ULL and does a retarded phase. I see no changes right now.

[Weatherforecaster]

WreckognizeThisWeather!, on 10 January 2010 - 06:40 AM, said:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
523 AM CST SUN JAN 10 2010


...LONG TERM...A DESCENDING 170KT SUBTROPICAL JET NEAR BAJA AROUND
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK STILL LOOKS TO CARVE OUT AND DIG A DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO. GFS MODEL AGRREMENT WITH THE EURO AND
AVAILABLE ENERGY TO THIS SYSTEM BEARS SOME SIMILARITIES WITH THE
GULF STORM SYSTEM OF MARCH `93. A DEEP AND INTENSIFYING GULF LOW
BELOW 1000HPA IS DEPICTED ON THE LATEST GFS RUN OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF EARLY SATURDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS ARE POSSIBLE. STAY TUNED.

The problem is that will we see heavy rains then as colder air moves in the rain could switch over to snow. Or some places across the southeast would see ice with that CAD over NE GA and the Carolinas then switch over to all snow as colder air moves in from the NW.

[superjames1992]

12z Euro is a swing-and-a-miss for snowfall.  It's still a week away, though.

[Taylor Campbell]

I see nothing wrong using the analog of '93' if those were the type of impacts the forecast area recieved from that system. It's like some of ya'll are reading it as if their forecasting for you and they aren't!

[Weatherforecaster]

This next system seams like a BIG one... I heard its almost like the '93 blizzard. With a CAD across NE GA and the Carolinas... will some see rain, or freezing rain... then snow? The CAD could cause freezing rain for some or just a cold rain. Then as colder air moves in from the NW will it get could enough to cause snow for some or will the storm move out before the cold air moves in?? I don't think winter weather is out of the question.

Edited by Weatherforecaster, 10 January 2010 - 02:00 PM.

[CHSweatherfan]

Weatherforecaster, on 10 January 2010 - 01:57 PM, said:

This next system seams like a BIG one... I heard its almost like the '93 blizzard. With a CAD across NE GA and the Carolinas... will some see rain, or freezing rain... then snow? The CAD could cause freezing rain for some or just a cold rain. Then as colder air moves in from the NW will it get could enough to cause snow for some or will the storm move out before the cold air moves in?? I don't think winter weather is out of the question.

I seriously doubt we will see any system with the magnitude of the 93 storm again in our lifetime.

[southalwx]

I do see similarities here. For them to reference "the-storm-that-should-not-be-named" to it is a stretch, but I don't see anything preventing it from happening again atleast on some scale. (maybe larger?) This is weather we never really know and we don't know what the pattern is capable of given it's rarity. To say "once in a lifetime" is a bit misleading. There is nothing to support this never happening again in the next 50 years. Odds are against a storm of that magnitude and if I had to guess, the models poof this storm like they do every other one =P BUT, does the modelling suggest (or has it suggested) a rapidly deepening low in the gulf?yes. could this be of the magnitude of '93? sure why not. will it be? I'd rather think not =)

[Weatherforecaster]

CHSweatherfan, on 10 January 2010 - 02:11 PM, said:

I seriously doubt we will see any system with the magnitude of the 93 storm again in our lifetime.

Me neither... but Its almost like something like the '93 storm. This next system will not have a very strong magnitude like the '93 storm.

[deltadog03]

One HUGE note with regards to the B93...That was a big old miller A  I have seen nothing show a miller A with this upcoming storm.  All signs point to miller B right now.

[deltadog03]

We have a thread for this don't we?

[Weatherforecaster]

deltadog03, on 10 January 2010 - 02:24 PM, said:

We have a thread for this don't we?

The blizzard had a barometric pressure reading low as 28.45. Now this next system the 850mb is above 0c DEG... so that will probably cause a cold rain... maybe some freezing rain some where across the SE MAYBE.

[Memphis Weather]

Weatherforecaster, on 10 January 2010 - 02:30 PM, said:

The blizzard had a barometric pressure reading low as 28.45. Now this next system the 850mb is above 0c DEG... so that will probably cause a cold rain... maybe some freezing rain some where across the SE MAYBE.

And that didn't answer his question at all...which is of course yes...there is a thread for this system

No offense...you are new here as I see...but its probably best to keep the discussion on this system within the ongoing thread so people will know where to turn for all info regarding it...

[Weatherforecaster]

Weatherforecaster, on 10 January 2010 - 02:30 PM, said:

The blizzard had a barometric pressure reading low as 28.45. Now this next system the 850mb is above 0c DEG... so that will probably cause a cold rain... maybe some freezing rain some where across the SE MAYBE.

blog.washingtonpost.com/.../1993_SURFACE_MAP.jpg

That is the 1993 blizzard surface map... the 12Z run showed similar... like the '93. I don't think we will see snow we will see heavy rain.

[brax]

12z is showing 3 inches of rain for Atlanta O.O wow.

[Weatherforecaster]

Memphis Weather, on 10 January 2010 - 02:41 PM, said:

And that didn't answer his question at all...which is of course yes...there is a thread for this system

No offense...you are new here as I see...but its probably best to keep the discussion on this system within the ongoing thread so people will know where to turn for all info regarding it...

I was just telling him what was the barometric pressure reading of '93... and there's nothing wrong with that... and I know that did not answer his question. He knew that this system had a threat... if you go to the links he put.

[Weatherforecaster]

brax, on 10 January 2010 - 02:43 PM, said:

12z is showing 3 inches of rain for Atlanta O.O wow.

I would not doubt it.

[Psalm 148:8]

Anyone look at the 12Z GFS emsembles??...some of them look very....intriguing??  Rather strong system showing up here...I don't think I'll give up on the winter scenario just yet...still looks like the possibility is there...not likely, but small possibility...

Edited by Psalm 148:8, 10 January 2010 - 03:33 PM.

[Weatherforecaster]

Psalm 148:8, on 10 January 2010 - 03:29 PM, said:

Anyone look at the 12Z GFS emsembles??...some of them look very....intriguing??  Rather strong system showing up here...I don't think I'll give up on the winter scenario just yet...still looks like the possibility is there...not likely, but small possibility...

Yeah that's right we can't tell if we are going to have wintry weather out of this system. Its still a week away... yesterday models showed heavy rain... then snow. Now today's models are showing no snow... I think the models will continue to do that in till it has a good handle on this system.

[AlabamaStormTracker]

Look......the surface is just one aspect to a storm system. That looks nothing like the B '93 besides TRACK. The upper levels don't quite look the same....and neither do the pressure fields. This system weakens as it moves northward instead of bombs as well. So, this really does NOT look like the B '93 system. Now, if we had a significant short wave coming out of Mexico going negative tilt in the gulf with a significant long wave diving into the southeastern plains....I would jump like a giddy school girl. However, that will not be the case.