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What kind of summer will we have?


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#1 Itunis

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Posted 19 May 2009 - 07:31 PM

This recent cool snap made me realize that I have yet to break 85 IMBY. This spring has seemed rather cool(regarding highs)  and rainier than normal. Sitting here in the mid 60s in mid May makes me think/hope that a cooler than normal summer is in store. What are you guys' thoughts? Does a cool spring usually lead to a cool summer?


#2 bugalou

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Posted 19 May 2009 - 09:04 PM

QUOTE (Itunis @ May 19 2009, 7:31 pm) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
This recent cool snap made me realize that I have yet to break 85 IMBY. This spring has seemed rather cool(regarding highs)  and rainier than normal. Sitting here in the mid 60s in mid May makes me think/hope that a cooler than normal summer is in store. What are you guys' thoughts? Does a cool spring usually lead to a cool summer?


The winter was fairly cold to as well.  I suppose we will see if there is any credit to the sunspot cycle and the climate.  
I hope this pleasant pattern with occasional rain continues.  My rafting trip in NW Arkansas in mid June will be nice if it does. icon_smile.gif

#3 superjames1992

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Posted 20 May 2009 - 06:52 AM

I think we will have few hurricanes (and a more front-loaded season).  I think average to slightly below average temperatures will be in store with wetter than normal conditions than normal due to a developing El Nino.

When El Ninos begin in Spring, temperatures most often are cooler than normal in the East and warmer in the West.  The only exception is South Florida.



This also tends to lead the Deep South into quite wet conditions while areas up in the northern Southeast receive more average rainfall.  Areas in the central U.S. are often much drier than normal.



It's still a bit too early to tell if this El Nino is going to be east or west-based or how strong it is going to get, however, so it's tough to say for sure.  It does look to be forming into a bit of an east-based Nino right now, though.
Winter 2013-2014
First Frost: 10/24
First Freeze: 10/26
First Snowfall: 11/12
First Measurable Snowfall: 1/21
Coldest Temperature: 4F
Wintry Events:
11/12 - T SN
11/26 - T ZR
11/27 - T SN
12/8 - Glaze of ZR
1/15 - T SN
1/21 - 0.5" SN
1/28 - 1.5" SN
2/10 - T SN
2/12-2/13 - 8.0" SN/IP, 0.10" ZR
3/3 - 0.5" SN/IP, T ZR
3/6-3/7 - 3.0" IP, 0.50" ZR
3/17 - 0.5" IP, 0.10" ZR
3/25 - T SN
3/30 - T SN

#4 SD

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Posted 20 May 2009 - 07:32 AM

As of right now I see no overwheling signal for big heat nor drought. Generally el nino summers favor troughing in the east an below normal temps and lots of rain. With the el nino ramping up like it is right now we may see a pretty dead hurricane season. However winter is looking spectacular
"Ill take my bullseye and run with it. You superstitious suckers to the west will be frowning 6 days from now" -Myself Jan 23 2014

#5 superjames1992

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Posted 20 May 2009 - 04:08 PM

QUOTE (SD @ May 20 2009, 8:32 am) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
As of right now I see no overwheling signal for big heat nor drought. Generally el nino summers favor troughing in the east an below normal temps and lots of rain. With the el nino ramping up like it is right now we may see a pretty dead hurricane season. However winter is looking spectacular

Yep, the signals are all there for a GREAT season!  Now whether they'll come to fruition is to be decided, but an El Nino will be a welcome sight along with negative NAO, ect.
Winter 2013-2014
First Frost: 10/24
First Freeze: 10/26
First Snowfall: 11/12
First Measurable Snowfall: 1/21
Coldest Temperature: 4F
Wintry Events:
11/12 - T SN
11/26 - T ZR
11/27 - T SN
12/8 - Glaze of ZR
1/15 - T SN
1/21 - 0.5" SN
1/28 - 1.5" SN
2/10 - T SN
2/12-2/13 - 8.0" SN/IP, 0.10" ZR
3/3 - 0.5" SN/IP, T ZR
3/6-3/7 - 3.0" IP, 0.50" ZR
3/17 - 0.5" IP, 0.10" ZR
3/25 - T SN
3/30 - T SN

#6 SD

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Posted 20 May 2009 - 09:08 PM

I really hope for an el nino regardless of the NAO state. Even if we get a strong nino the chances of seeing atleast some snow IMO are alot more likely than in a la nina.
"Ill take my bullseye and run with it. You superstitious suckers to the west will be frowning 6 days from now" -Myself Jan 23 2014

#7 CT_Yankee

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Posted 21 May 2009 - 09:44 AM

Lol!  The LEAST thing on my mind right now is snow and winter!     icon_biggrin.gif
Aaron
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My Current Conditions

#8 KG4GUF

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Posted 21 May 2009 - 10:54 AM

Does a nino also increase the chance for severe weather? I remember one increases hurricanes, but decreases severe weather or something weird and flipped around like that.

Fred Gossage said:

Just know that the larger table is set... we just don't know what's gonna be served on your individual plate just yet.
^^ One of the best weather-related quotes I've ever heard!

#9 k0skinne

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Posted 21 May 2009 - 11:47 AM

Kirk Mellish, met at WSB 750 AM in Atlanta, has posted his summer and hurricane outlook, with a mention of next fall/winter.

http://wsbradio.com/blogs/kirk_mellishs_weather_commentary/



#10 superjames1992

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Posted 21 May 2009 - 05:40 PM

QUOTE (KG4GUF @ May 21 2009, 11:54 am) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Does a nino also increase the chance for severe weather? I remember one increases hurricanes, but decreases severe weather or something weird and flipped around like that.

An El Nino generally decreases hurricane chances due to increased wind shear and other factors which I don't really have a ton of knowledge of.

An El Nino pattern also leads to a more southern flow with the subtropical jet stream providing more moisture to the Southeast, resulting in wetter and, therefore, in all likelihood, more severe weather for the Southeast.  Also, I believe that El Ninos tend to result in more East Coast landfalling hurricanes than usual as opposed to Gulf Coast landfalls.

An El Nino also increases the chances of bigger Noreaster'-type storms and snowstorms during the winter due to cooler-than-normal temperatures combined with a more abundant source of moisture.

La Nina means above average temperatures for the Southeast along with drier weather, but there is more chances for hurricanes to develop in the Atlantic Basin.  For example, 2005, the record-breaking 28-storm hurricane season, was set during an El Nino ENSO oscillation.

At least that is how I understand it, but I'm certainly no climatologist, so I might be wrong.

Edited by superjames1992, 21 May 2009 - 05:43 PM.

Winter 2013-2014
First Frost: 10/24
First Freeze: 10/26
First Snowfall: 11/12
First Measurable Snowfall: 1/21
Coldest Temperature: 4F
Wintry Events:
11/12 - T SN
11/26 - T ZR
11/27 - T SN
12/8 - Glaze of ZR
1/15 - T SN
1/21 - 0.5" SN
1/28 - 1.5" SN
2/10 - T SN
2/12-2/13 - 8.0" SN/IP, 0.10" ZR
3/3 - 0.5" SN/IP, T ZR
3/6-3/7 - 3.0" IP, 0.50" ZR
3/17 - 0.5" IP, 0.10" ZR
3/25 - T SN
3/30 - T SN



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