Talkweather Forums: Southeast Weather

TORNADO WARNING North Alabama

Sun, 13 May 2012 22:45:05 +0000

Tornado Warning for SE Limestone County at 05:40. Funnel cloud reported near Decatur

Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEA) Start Soon

Sun, 13 May 2012 22:18:55 +0000

Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEA) Start Soon

Drought

Sun, 13 May 2012 18:52:20 +0000

Hope everyone getting a good soaking this weekend. Heh, not here. It's been another Ugh! Another disappointing event that was supposed to drop significant rainfall but didn't. Even with a low pressure system tracking directly over us, we still got screwed here. 0.71" system total thus far, and most likely gonna finish less than 1" with only the showers on the backside of the system to move thru, vs a forecasted total of 2" to 2.5". That has been the pattern past 60 days for KCHA...high expecations but low results. The long range looks high and dry. I'm thinking this year's April/May/June will end up being a top 5 driest for KCHA. July onward should get us back on track though based on teleconnections with ENSO SST's and NAO/AO phases. But between now and July, yuck, little relief in sight.

Potential Nor'easter next weekend

Sun, 13 May 2012 18:51:19 +0000

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
203 PM EDT SUN MAY 13 2012

VALID 12Z WED MAY 16 2012 - 12Z SUN MAY 20 2012

...COASTAL LOW/NOR'EASTER POSSIBLE NEAR THE CAROLINAS NEXT
WEEKEND...

OUTSIDE THE 00Z CANADIAN GUIDANCE BEYOND FRIDAY MORNING...THE
AVAILABLE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEAN GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE EXPECTED FLOW PATTERN. TROUGHING BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WHILE RIDGING EXISTS
ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST AND A DEEP CYCLONE MOVES OFFSHORE THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. SINCE THERE WAS SUCH GOOD AGREEMENT...USED A
40/30/30 BLEND OF THE 00Z UKMET/00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE SWITCHING TO A 50/50 BLEND/COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z GFS AND
00Z ECMWF SOLUTIONS. THIS PREFERENCE LED TO GOOD CONTINUITY.

THE DEEP CYCLONE/NOR'EASTER FORECAST OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THIS WEEKEND HAS A CHANCE TO BECOME A HYBRID SYSTEM AS IT HOVERS
NEAR THE WARM GULF STREAM WATERS FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY THE
FOLLOWING WEEK. EVEN IF IT REMAINS COLD CORE...THE SYSTEM SHOULD
LEAD TO LOWERED PRESSURES/DISTURBED WEATHER ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN LATE IN THE PERIOD NEAR THE BASE OF ITS UPPER
TROUGH/COLD FRONT...NORMALLY A PROBLEM WHEN A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE
FORMS BETWEEN THE SOUTHEAST AND BERMUDA. HEAVY COMMA HEAD
RAINS/WINDY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE
CAROLINA/GEORGIA/NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST IF THE SYSTEM TAKES A
MORE COASTAL ROUTE AS SEEN IN THE 00Z ECMWF. IF IT DEVELOPS AND
STAYS FARTHER OFFSHORE...IT COULD EVOLVE INTO A WILDFIRE CONCERN
FOR SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA/NORTHERN FLORIDA WHICH ARE WITHIN THEIR
ANNUAL SPRING DROUGHT...SIMILAR TO THE SITUATION SEEN DURING
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREAS DEVELOPMENT DURING EARLY MAY 2007. THE
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT AS SEEN BY ECMWF OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS
IS DIFFERENT THAN THAT OF 2007 EVOLUTION OF ANDREAS...BUT THE
FINAL DEVELOPMENT OF ANDREAS INTO ITS SUBTROPICAL FORM IS SIMILAR
IN THE MID LEVEL H500 FLOW OF THIS EVENT.

VELOCITY POTENTIAL ANOMALIES OF GFS/ECMWF/CMC CONTINUE TO INDICATE
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC/WESTERN CARRIBEAN AND OFF THE U.S. SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD.
THE EASTERN PACIFIC ALREADY HAS A SYSTEM READY TO GO AND WILL
LIKELY BE AT LEAST A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
SEE NHC DISCUSSIONS. THE ATLANTIC SIDE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD ALSO HAS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AS MENTIONED ABOVE WITH A
LARGE NUMBER OF ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORTING THE OPERATIONAL
RUN WITH THE SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK AND WEEKEND. BEYOND THIS TIME
FRAME LONGER TERM RUNS OF GFS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING TROPICAL SYSTEMS
IN THE WESTERN CARRIBEAN WITH AN EXIT NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD.
THIS IS ANOTHER INDICATION THAT THE MODELS RECOGNIZE FUTURE
FAVORABLE DEVELOPMENT CONDITIONS OR CYCLOGENESIS.

UPDATED MORNING PRELIMS REMAIN SIMILAR TO THE OVERNIGHT PACKAGE
WITH AN ADJUSTMENT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD LOW SOUTHWARD OF
THE EARLY PRELIMS OFF THE SC COAST AS A BETTER FIT TO LAGGED
AVERAGE FORECASTS OF ECMWF AND GFS.

AFTN FINALS REMAIN THE SAME. ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR EARLIER PROGS
BY HIRES UKMET OVER CONUS AND ADJACENT WATERS. SOUTHEAST SEABOARD
LOW FORECAST SE OF CAPE FEAR IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 00Z ECMWF DAYS
6-7.
ROTH/ROSENSTEIN
This has my interest.

NCDC Storm Events Database upgrade

Sun, 13 May 2012 03:10:54 +0000

Right now I am trying to get some info on past tornado outbreaks, so I went to the NCDC database and noticed they were upgrading the database. Unfortunately, they now only list events from 2006 onward. I was really disappointed and I hope that this is not permanent. Anyone have any info on if or when they will add the rest of the events?

desktop weather software

Fri, 11 May 2012 18:06:25 +0000

Can anyone recommend a good desktop weather software download (preferably free)? I had Weatherbug for quite some time, but its adware/spyware were such a problem that I deleted it. At the very least, I'm looking for something that will provide audible alerts for severe weather.

New Weather.Gov preview

Wed, 09 May 2012 18:26:06 +0000

http://preview.weather.gov/WTH/MapClick.php?map.x=134&map.y=98&site=ffc&zmx=1&zmy=1

Even better? That they have WTH in the URL. lol.

Heat Advisory Criteria Changing for BMX CWA

Wed, 09 May 2012 13:27:59 +0000

Quote

...REVISED HEAT ADVISORY/WARNING CRITERIA FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA...

IN COORDINATION WITH THE ALABAMA DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC HEALTH, THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE (NWS) IN BIRMINGHAM HAS REVISED THE
CRITERIA FOR ISSUING HEAT-RELATED PRODUCTS. THE CHANGE WAS MADE TO
SIMPLIFY THE GUIDELINES FOR ISSUING HEAT ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS.
THE REVISED CRITERIA WILL CONTINUE TO UTILIZE THE HEAT INDEX, WHICH
IS A COMBINATION OF AIR TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY, BUT NWS
FORECASTERS CAN NOW ISSUE HEAT-RELATED PRODUCTS FOR ABNORMALLY HIGH
AIR TEMPERATURES, REGARDLESS OF THE HUMIDITY. ALSO, THE REVISED
CRITERIA IS UNIFORMLY APPLIED TO ALL COUNTIES ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA, NOT DIFFERENT CRITERIA FOR EACH MAJOR CITY.

HERE IS THE REVISED CRITERIA FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA.

HEAT ADVISORY

HEAT INDEX >=105 OR AIR TEMPERATURE 100-105

EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING

HEAT INDEX >=110 OR AIR TEMPERATURE >105

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS REGARDING THIS INFORMATION, PLEASE CONTACT
WARNING COORDINATION METEOROLOGIST JOHN DE BLOCK AT (205) 664-3010
EXT 223, OR BY E-MAIL TO JOHN.DEBLOCK@NOAA.GOV.

Yes, I know the bottom says to get in contact with John D, but I thought this could stir up some good conversation since it's about that time down here for some good ol' fashioned heat.

My question for Jim Westland or any of the folks linked up with BMX...do these criteria mean the low temperature >=75 requirement is going away as well? I know FFC quoted that a few times last year as reasoning they didn't issue heat advisories because lows were in the lower 70s, giving enough time "to recover," so they said. I never agreed with that because you could still get heat stroke in the middle of the day with a heat index of 110 for an hour or two regardless of whatever the low temperature might be...it could be below freezing for all I care, and you'd still have to take the precautions in the middle of the day.

And IIRC, there were certain duration criteria as well (as in days) for an excessive heat warning, but I could be wrong.

Leaving Talk Weather

Wed, 09 May 2012 09:46:17 +0000

I just wanted to make brief post stating I'm leaving Talk Weather and will ask the mods to delete my account and posts. I won't go into details since this is a weather form, and that's where the focus should be. Thank you to everybody who has been helpful.

Tornado video from Germany

Tue, 08 May 2012 03:58:05 +0000

NathansGal et al might want to think twice before using Europe(At least more southern countries) as a storm shelter during tornado season... This was Germany on Sunday: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i4iQmeM_1vo . This was near Stuttgart Airport.

Then again, thunderstorm season has been quite slow in my heck of the woods although some storms went through the parts of the country on Sunday evening. Nothing too bad on our end though.

Need input on PC/HDTV monitors for radar data

Mon, 07 May 2012 04:42:51 +0000

I needed to get some advice/opinions on if anyone is using a "large" HDTV or large PC monitors with your PC setup's and how good does radar/satellite/model data display on them?
I am in the process of buying a 32" HDTV and using it for my PC monitor but didn't know how good the data would look on such a large display as such, or what particular brand some of you are using and how good is your monitor/HDTV setup?

Any input would be GREATLY appreciated!!

Thanks...Tim

Tornado in Japan Today

Sun, 06 May 2012 16:08:41 +0000

I can't give a cuss word warning because frankly, I don't know what they said....I like this because it's unedited....

Japan Tornado

Sadly one death and a dozen injuries....according to TWC Japan on experiences 20 tornadoes a year

Debunking Tornado Myths

Thu, 03 May 2012 00:06:58 +0000

Tomorrow, Thu 5/3, at 6am, WHNT 19's Jason Simpson will have a special report on debunking tornado myths. Even though I'm a trained spotter & have attended a few classes, I'm sure I still have a lot to learn, and this sounds interesting. Anyway, I've already set my DVR to record it, because I'm not even conscious at that hour. Hopefully they'll post some of it online or on YouTube for those that live outside of the Huntsville market and want to see it.

Any rain for N. Alabama soon?

Wed, 02 May 2012 12:26:01 +0000

It's getting mighty dry.

Severe Wx Threat 5/07-5/13 2012

Wed, 02 May 2012 00:15:42 +0000

Starting to see some model consistency on at least the potential of a pretty potent svr wx event starting near the panhandle's of TX and OK then moving E/NE covering most of OK, KS and central/south KS. Edited to include areas

0z GFS

6z

Probably chaser's delight

Very warm year so far.

Tue, 01 May 2012 02:39:47 +0000

Data from the B'ham Airport for the year so far vs normal:
Avg High: 69.1 ( Normal is 63.3)
Avg. Low: 47.6 ( Normal is 41.3)
Mean Avg: 58.4 ( Normal is 52.3) 6.1 degrees above normal so far for the year.
Date of last freeze was 31 degrees on Feb. 25th.
There were no low's below 20 degrees. Lowest temp was 20 on Feb 12th.

Plains Chase Trip / 5/21-5/27 (2 Seats Available)

Mon, 30 Apr 2012 21:57:50 +0000

We will be taking a tornado tour out to the plains leaving May 16th in search of severe weather and tornadic activity. We will have some instrumentation on board from some UAH Engineering students to take some readings near supercell thunderstorms and tornadoes during this time period. We have a seat or possibly two that we need to fill (at a cost) for this trip. If there are any interested parties, please shoot me a message if you would like to go and have a great time....meet great people...and experience severe weather first hand. We took a trip on the 14th...and you all know how that event panned out. 10 total tornadoes and lending a hand over in Wichita to help some chasers and some residents.

brett@livestormsnow.com for details.

Thanks!

avc 33/40 DVD

Mon, 30 Apr 2012 02:50:47 +0000

ABC 33/40

could somebody possibly get me a dvd from abc 33/40 that was made for the tornado even last year ? If so I am willing to pay for it. I would really like to have one. Also I got the one fox 6 wbrc made already

May 1-7 Severe Potential

Sun, 29 Apr 2012 05:37:51 +0000

Looks like this will roughly be the next time-frame to watch. SPC has already issued a day 5 outlook, which is a bit of a red flag so to speak.

EDIT: The day 4-8 outlook area is no longer there, but we now have a Day 3 30% outlook area with hatching. Although i'm not sure if I share that level of confidence for a major event.

Looks hot this week

Sun, 29 Apr 2012 05:25:56 +0000

For a good portion of the region with many people pushing 90 all week. The closer you get to the carolinas the more your possibly to get tempered back by back door fronts and maybe a mcs. Things should start to head back more toward normal late next weekend as the SE ridge may retrograde to the plains or even sw and we see the eastern us troughing attempt to reappear

Alabama's �Miniature Tornado Alleys�

Sun, 29 Apr 2012 04:52:04 +0000

Did not want to tie up the other thread a blog post by Tim Coleman piked my interest and I got curious after reading and went ahead and pull up most of North and Central AL tornado's since 1950 to current. Using Google Earth to show terrain, rivers and to an extent density of tree's. Data courtesy of the Tornado Project...

What got my attention “Miniature Tornado Alleys”

Quote

Also, many people think that they are safe from tornadoes if they are in a downhill valley to the east or north of a mountain. Our research suggests just the opposite may be true! Often, as tornadoes or rotating storms go from over a mountain to a descending valley, tornadoes are produced or intensify. There are several theories as to why this may happen, including that the rotation in a storm, once the land drops out from under it, is able to stretch out vertically. Just like when an ice skater pulls in her arms she spins faster, the same happens with air. The rotation may spin faster as it goes downhill.

More later but opinions and others thoughts are welcome I will be zooming in a little later and including the paths of each of the TOR posted above to give general idea of how they tracked.

....carry on

Active week coming up

Sat, 28 Apr 2012 20:56:20 +0000

Doesn't seem like May is gonna be as nice to us as April was. Figured I'd go ahead and throw a thread up for you guys to discuss

These kind of forecasts make me weep

Dr Tim Coleman

Fri, 27 Apr 2012 21:01:27 +0000

Dr tim coleman has posted some amazing blog posts for 33/40. Today was his last

Twc live net stream?

Thu, 26 Apr 2012 18:26:12 +0000

Anybody know of a live stream on the web for Twc? Not just during outbreaks and such...a live stream of what's currently on tv.

Watches/warnings 4/26

Thu, 26 Apr 2012 17:42:48 +0000

We had big storms that prompted several warnings in our area this morning I was told, but I slept though it all to everyones amazement. It must have been a dilly of a storm.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
131 PM EDT THU APR 26 2012

TNC155-261815-
/O.CON.KMRX.SV.W.0122.000000T0000Z-120426T1815Z/
SEVIER TN-
131 PM EDT THU APR 26 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM FOR
SEVIER COUNTY...

AT 128 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR GATLINBURG...AND WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES PRIMARY KILLERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THUNDERSTORMS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

Personal Stories from 4-27-22011 ( a year later)

Thu, 26 Apr 2012 05:35:42 +0000

April 27th 2011 is a day that will forever be etched in my mind. I had been a long time reader of the forums. I
knew the instant that Fred said that the day would be historic that I needed to be weather aware. I knew that with
him using that kind of wording that he was worried and I should be too. I stayed up all Tuesday and Tuesday night
watching the storms out west. When the first warning went off (sometime early that morning) I knew it would be a
bumpy ride. After we came home from the storm house at my in laws sometime after 10 AM (not sure of the exact time)
I decided to catch a nap. My husband came and woke me up when a tornado was hitting Cullman. We often watch James
Spann online. I decided to catch another nap only I wasn't down for long when he came running to the bedroom and
told me that I needed to get up now that there was a tornado in Phil Campbell and it looked like it was coming towards
us. I rushed to get up and get the kids ready. Like so many times before, I honestly figured that we would go to the
storm house, ride out the warning and come home. We got to the in laws and for some reason my husband turned on the
scanner to listen to the storm spotters. We heard one call out that there was a 1/2 mile wide tornado on the ground
in Mt. Hope Alabama and it was coming straight for us. By the time we got all the family (Mine, my in laws, hubby's
brother and his family) out to the storm house, the radio said we had 8 minutes until it would reach Hillsboro.

All of a sudden my ears started hurting. My brother in law asked his father what was this strange haze across the field
from us. He said that it was a tornado and they shut the door. The wind started whipping and the door was trying to be
pushed open. My husband, brother and father in law stood against the door trying with all they had to keep the door closed.
Pine needles were coming through the door and hitting them in the face. The storm house filled up with red dirt and was
actually whirling around. The sound was like nothing I have ever heard in my life. For me, it did resemble a train on
the tracks. And it was over with.

When we opened the doors, my mother in law said that her house was gone. Chaos broke out from there. There was multiple
injuries, the worse in our neighborhood was from a couple whose truck was picked up and tossed behind out storm house. My
husband and I stayed with them until we could get help to arrive (roughly an hour), he had a broken back and she required 36
staples in her head. Both have since recovered. There was a dumpster dropped about 20 feet from the storm house.

I have never seen anything like this in my life. My house (1/2 mile up the road from my in laws) was destroyed. It die not
hit me about our home until one of our daughters made the comment that they were homeless now. We lived in a camper that was
donated to us for 3 months.. 2 adults, 2 teenagers and a 10 year.. that would ROUGH... LOL

We found bricks to my in laws house near my house. I found a birthday card of my nephew's in the splinters of a tree. We found a
photo of my 10 yr old daughter on her first day of kindergarten in a cotton field. We are still finding stuff a year later.
I relive that day, every minute of it, every single day. It's a day I will never forget.

Sorry if I rambled on.. that is my story from April 27th 2011

April has been quite in severe weather for the south?

Tue, 24 Apr 2012 19:00:25 +0000

I am not a meteorologist, just a fan of weather, so I an no expert, but this April seems to have been rather quiet for severe weather here in the southeast considering its one of our busier months for severe weather. Late February and March seemed rather active (more than usual), and have many believing that April would be wild, but seems to me it has been rather laxed, not to mention we have had several "cool" spells after having a record warm March.

Does it look as if the rest of the month, as well as May will be as calm and cool?

It does look like a big warm up coming for the weekend (even in the mid 80s forecasted here for NE Tennessee), but i wonder how long it will last?

Rainfall on the horizon?

Tue, 24 Apr 2012 15:37:54 +0000

Can't fit the entire 2nd end of the GFS on here from twister data (into a single 96 hour window) so I'll split it into 2 parts. You can add the totals up in your head.

Also a meteogram:

Laptops vs Tablets

Tue, 24 Apr 2012 02:02:16 +0000

For you storm chasers out there I saw an article today in which they talked to a chaser from kansas about the advances in computers. This guy said he still likes using a laptop vs a tablet. To me a tablet makes more since being that they are smaller and take up less space. Any thoughts?

One Year After April 27, 2011

Mon, 23 Apr 2012 20:24:51 +0000

On Thursday, April 26, 2012, the National Weather Service in Birmingham will host a one hour webinar from 630 pm � 730 pm CDT. On this webinar, we will talk about the historic tornado outbreaks of April 2011, our personal experiences, and answer as many of your questions as possible.

Additional information about this event is available on the National Weather Service, Birmingham AL, website at:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/bmx/?n=april27webinar